[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 December 14 issued 2330 UT on 06 Dec 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Dec 7 10:30:31 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 DECEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 DECEMBER - 09 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Dec: 129/82
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Dec 08 Dec 09 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 135/89 140/94
COMMENT: Active Region 2222 (S20W64) produced a number of C-class
flares over the UT day, the largest being a C4.4 level event
peaking at 1244UT. Limited LASCO C2/C3 imagery shows a NW-directed
CME of about 80 degrees angular extent after 12UT in association
with the C-level flare sequence in AR2222. Location of the flare
origin suggests the CME is likely to be geoeffective. LASCO imagery
for Dec 05 shows a narrow W-directed CME after 12UT, probably
in association with the M1 level flare in AR2222. This CME is
also likely to be geoeffective. Solar wind speed was steady at
around 400 km/s until 06/15UT after which it increased to about
700 km/s at the time of report issue. IMF Total Field (Bt) increased
significantly to over 20nT at 1430UT, declining again after then.
IMF Bz component was mostly neutral to Northward. A sustained
negative period to -10nT was observed 16-20UT. ACE EPAM data
indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning 06/1800UT,
which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic activity over
next 24-36 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Dec: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 06 Dec : A K
Australian Region 15 22332344
Cocos Island 12 32232333
Darwin 12 12232334
Townsville 14 12333343
Learmonth 14 12333334
Alice Springs 12 22232334
Norfolk Island 14 12232353
Culgoora 16 42332343
Gingin 13 12232344
Camden 26 3-344544
Canberra 14 32332343
Launceston - --------
Hobart 16 23332344
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Dec :
Macquarie Island 10 22332133
Casey 39 46653344
Mawson 19 34433343
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Dec :
Darwin 55 (Unsettled)
Townsville 12 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 15 (Quiet)
Gingin 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 56 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8 2323 3212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Dec 12 Unsettled
08 Dec 12 Unsettled
09 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Regional geomagnetic conditions were Unsettled to briefly
Active (18-20UT) at low to mid latitudes over the UT day Dec
06. At high latitudes conditions were Unsettled to Active with
Minor Storm periods observed at some stations. The Earth remains
under the influence of an intensifying moderate coronal hole
wind stream which appears likely to persist for the next few
days. Mild solar wind shocks due to recent solar flare activity
may result in further geomagnetic disturbance over the forecast
period.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: High latitude disturbances possible mainly days one,
two and three due to elevated geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Dec 89
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15%.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 30%before local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 15% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
with periods of disturbance.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 113
Dec 87
Jan 87
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Dec 75 Near predicted monthly values
08 Dec 80 Near predicted monthly values
09 Dec 85 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mild enhancements observed Equatorial region. Ionospheric
conditions mostly near predicted monthly values N/S Aus regions
but widespread mild to moderate depressions observed after local
dawn. Lower HF frequency bands may be more successful Aus region
today. Periods of localised disturbance observed Antarctic region.
Expect occasional periods of disturbance S Aus/Antarctic regions
next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Dec
Speed: 453 km/sec Density: 4.6 p/cc Temp: 93100 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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