[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 August 14 issued 2330 UT on 11 Aug 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Aug 12 09:30:19 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 AUGUST 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 12 AUGUST - 14 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Aug: 105/54
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Aug 13 Aug 14 Aug
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with
a single C1 flare from region 2132 (S23W73). Region 2134 (N12W37)
showed some growth. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. The
solar wind speed is currently around 480 km/s. Over the last
24 hours, the IMZ Bf component was mostly positive, but dipped
below -7 nT around 22 UT. Solar activity is expected to very
low to low over the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 11 Aug : A K
Australian Region 4 11111212
Cocos Island 3 10111211
Darwin 4 11111212
Townsville 5 21112212
Learmonth 4 21112211
Alice Springs 3 11101202
Norfolk Island 2 11001111
Culgoora 4 11111212
Gingin 3 10102211
Camden 4 11111212
Canberra 2 10001202
Launceston 4 11102212
Hobart 2 10101202
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Aug :
Macquarie Island 1 00001200
Casey 8 33311212
Mawson 5 22111311
Davis 4 12221210
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Aug :
Darwin 17 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 8 1022 2232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Aug 7 Quiet
13 Aug 7 Quiet
14 Aug 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions have been quiet across the Australian
region over the last 24 hours, with some unsettled periods in
Antarctica. Conditions are expected to be mostly quiet for the
next 3 days, with some unsettled periods on 12-13 Aug due to
coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Aug Normal Normal Normal
13 Aug Normal Normal Normal
14 Aug Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Aug 74
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 68
Aug 91
Sep 87
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Aug 72 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 0 to
15%
13 Aug 72 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 0 to
15%
14 Aug 72 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 0 to
15%
COMMENT: MUFs have been near monthly predicted values to mildly
depressed in central and southern Australia, with deeper depressions
at times in the north. Similar conditions are expected for the
next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.2E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Aug
Speed: 330 km/sec Density: 3.0 p/cc Temp: 41900 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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