[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 August 14 issued 2342 UT on 06 Aug 2014
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Aug 7 09:42:18 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 AUGUST 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 07 AUGUST - 09 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Aug: 137/91
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Aug 08 Aug 09 Aug
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 130/84 125/78
COMMENT: Low levels of solar activity have been observed during
the last 24 hours. Today's largest event was a C1 flare at 0339
UT from region 2132(S20W21). Solar wind mostly stayed around
450 km/s during the UT day today and the Bz component of IMF
varied between +3/-6 nT during this period, staying southwards
for relatively longer periods of time. Solar activity is expected
to stay at low levels with some possibility of isolated M-class
event during the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 06 Aug : A K
Australian Region 5 22222111
Cocos Island 2 11211100
Darwin 3 22112100
Townsville 6 22222211
Learmonth 5 12222210
Alice Springs 5 22222110
Norfolk Island 6 12322111
Culgoora 3 1-------
Gingin 5 11222211
Camden 7 2-------
Canberra 5 22222111
Launceston 9 223-----
Hobart 8 123-----
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Aug :
Macquarie Island 7 12333100
Casey 7 32222211
Mawson 26 35323355
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Aug :
Darwin 6 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 7 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 12 3232 3232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Aug 5 Quiet
08 Aug 5 Quiet
09 Aug 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions have been mostly Quiet with some
Unsettled periods. Some Unsettled periods can be expected for
another day before returning to mostly Quiet.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Aug Normal Normal Normal
08 Aug Normal Normal Normal
09 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions, with isolated periods of
minor to mild depressions in MUFs at low and some mid latitude
locations, were observed during the UT day today. Nearly similar
HF conditions may be expected for the next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Aug 86
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
No data available during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 68
Aug 91
Sep 87
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Aug 90 Near predicted monthly values
08 Aug 90 Near predicted monthly values
09 Aug 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum useable frequencies for HF communications are
mostly near predicted monthly values in the Australian region.
Some depressed periods during local night were observed in northern
and equatorial regions. MUFs are expected to remain mostly near
predicted monthly values for the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: Data not available
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: Data not available
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: Data not available
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: Data not available
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Aug
Speed: 456 km/sec Density: 3.9 p/cc Temp: 78900 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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