[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 April 14 issued 2330 UT on 28 Apr 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Apr 29 09:30:17 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 APRIL 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 29 APRIL - 01 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Apr: 121/73
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Apr 30 Apr 01 May
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 125/78 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours. The largest
flare of this period, a C3.4, came from region 2048(N20W51) at
1526 UT. Solar wind speed stayed between ~330 and ~270 km/s and
the IMF Bz mostly stayed south up to approximately -4nT. There
is some possibility of slight increase in solar wind speed parameters
due to minor coronal hole effects over the next 24 hours. Solar
activity is expected to be Low for the next 3 days with a slight
chance of an isolated M-class flare.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 28 Apr : A K
Australian Region 3 21121001
Cocos Island 0 110-0000
Darwin 2 21110002
Townsville 4 21121012
Learmonth 2 21111001
Alice Springs 2 21120001
Norfolk Island 3 22120001
Culgoora 3 21121011
Gingin 2 21120000
Camden 3 21121001
Canberra 2 21120001
Launceston 4 22131001
Hobart 4 22131001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Apr :
Macquarie Island 5 21241000
Casey 5 32221001
Mawson 13 24322224
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Apr :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 7 1001 2332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Apr 6 Quiet
30 Apr 5 Quiet
01 May 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly at Quiet levels during
the last 24 hours. Quiet conditions are expected for the next
3 days with possible isolated Unsettled periods on 29 and 30
April due to minor coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Apr Normal Normal Normal
30 Apr Normal Normal Normal
01 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions were mostly normal in Aus/NZ
regions during the last 24 hours. Nearly similar conditions may
be expected for the next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Apr 93
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 141
Apr 86
May 86
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Apr 95 Near predicted monthly values
30 Apr 95 Near predicted monthly values
01 May 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal over the last 24 hours.
Nearly similar conditions may be expected for the next three
days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:11%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Apr
Speed: 340 km/sec Density: 2.4 p/cc Temp: 37100 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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