[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 April 14 issued 2333 UT on 21 Apr 2014
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Apr 22 09:33:47 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 APRIL 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 22 APRIL - 24 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Apr: 159/113
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Apr 23 Apr 24 Apr
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 150/105 150/105
COMMENT: Solar activity has been low with several C class flares,
the greatest being a C5 from region 2038(S10W20) at 2002 UT.
The solar wind speed gradually decreased from 600 to 520 km/s
during the UT day today and the Bz component of IMF stayed mostly
positive during this time. Further gradual weakening in solar
wind stream is expected over the next two days. Low levels of
solar activity with a slight chance of isolated X-flare
may be expected over the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Apr: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 21 Apr : A K
Australian Region 12 33342311
Cocos Island 9 33332210
Darwin 11 33332312
Townsville 14 33442312
Learmonth 15 43442311
Alice Springs 11 33332311
Norfolk Island 12 333323-1
Culgoora 13 33-4231-
Gingin 12 32343310
Camden 12 33342311
Canberra 12 33342301
Launceston 17 33453311
Hobart 13 33343311
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Apr :
Macquarie Island 25 34464410
Casey 15 44432311
Mawson 24 54442522
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Apr :
Darwin 50 (Unsettled)
Townsville 5 (Quiet)
Learmonth 10 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 8 (Quiet)
Gingin 64 (Active)
Canberra 48 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 17
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 21 3203 5444
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Apr 8 Quiet to Active
23 Apr 5 Quiet to Unsettled
24 Apr 5 Quiet
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 12 was issued on 18 April and
is current for 20-22 Apr. Geomagnetic activity varied from Quiet
to Active levels today. Nearly similar levels of activity may
be expected on 22 April with a likely decline to mostly Quiet
levels of activity on 23 and 24 April with the possibility of
some Unsettled periods on 23 April. In the IPS magnetometer data
for 21 Apr, a weak (14nT) impulse was observed at 0806UT.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 1500UT 18/04, Ended at 1120UT 20/04
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Apr Normal Normal Normal
23 Apr Normal Normal Normal
24 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions are good with MUFs at or exceeding
predicted monthly values. Nearly similar conditions may be expected
for the next three days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Apr 136
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 70% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 141
Apr 86
May 86
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Apr 120 Near predicted monthly values
23 Apr 125 Near predicted monthly values
24 Apr 130 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions are good with MUFs at or
exceeding predicted monthly values. Nearly similar conditions
may be expected for the next three days in Aus/NZ regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+08
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Apr
Speed: 593 km/sec Density: 4.7 p/cc Temp: 154000 K Bz: 4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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