[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 April 14 issued 2330 UT on 06 Apr 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Apr 7 09:30:31 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 APRIL 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 07 APRIL - 09 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Apr: 141/95
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Apr 08 Apr 09 Apr
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 140/94 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low for the UT day, 06 April, with
several C-class flares observed by GOES 15 X-ray flux detector.
Solar activity is expected to be Low for the next 3 days. Active
region 12011 which previously produced M-flare(s) is due to return.
The solar wind decreased from 450 to 350 km/s over the last 24
hours and the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field
remained mostly positive.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 06 Apr : A K
Australian Region 1 21000001
Cocos Island 1 21100000
Darwin 2 21100010
Townsville 3 31010012
Learmonth 2 31000000
Alice Springs 1 21000001
Norfolk Island 0 20000000
Culgoora 1 2100-001
Gingin 2 30000001
Camden 1 21000001
Canberra 0 10000000
Launceston 2 21000101
Hobart 1 11000001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Apr :
Macquarie Island 0 10000000
Casey 5 23310000
Mawson 3 21100103
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Apr :
Darwin 8 (Quiet)
Townsville 4 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 12 1014 4333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Apr 4 Quiet
08 Apr 4 Quiet
09 Apr 4 Quiet
COMMENT: The Australian region geomagnetic activity was Mostly
Quiet with a few isolated periods of Active levels early during
the UT day, 06 April. Expect the next three days to be mostly
Quiet.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Apr Normal Normal Normal
08 Apr Normal Normal Normal
09 Apr Normal Normal Normal
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Apr 128
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 95% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 141
Apr 86
May 86
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Apr 130 About 20% above predicted monthly values
08 Apr 130 About 20% above predicted monthly values
09 Apr 130 About 20% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Observed MUFs were generally near predicted values or
above in the Australian region. MUFs are expected to remain near
predicted monthly values or slightly higher over the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Apr
Speed: 449 km/sec Density: 5.3 p/cc Temp: 94800 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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