[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 October 13 issued 2353 UT on 29 Oct 2013

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Oct 30 10:53:32 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 OCTOBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 30 OCTOBER - 01 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Oct:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  X2.3    2154UT  probable   all    East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Oct: 153/108


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 Oct             31 Oct             01 Nov
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   150/105            145/99             140/94

COMMENT: Solar activity reached High levels during 29 October 
with an X2-flare at 2154UT. There is still the potential for 
further flare activity for 30 October. CME activity observed 
in association with recent flares is expected to have predominantly 
glancing blows, with the most significant impact expected late 
in the UT day of 30 October and into 31 October. Solar wind speeds 
have been predominantly low and are expected to increase late 
in the UT day of 30 October with the arrival of CMEs.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 29 Oct : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   11132122
      Cocos Island         4   11122121
      Darwin               6   11132122
      Townsville           8   21133123
      Learmonth            7   21132222
      Alice Springs        7   20132123
      Culgoora             6   11132122
      Camden               6   11132122
      Canberra             3   10022012
      Launceston           6   21132122
      Hobart               5   10132122    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Oct :
      Macquarie Island     6   00043011
      Casey               10   23232223
      Mawson              18   22122264
      Davis               10   12233233

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        3   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              1   0100 0001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 Oct    18    Initially Quiet to Unsettled with Minor storm 
                periods possible late in the UT day with Major 
                storm periods possible at high latitudes.
31 Oct    25    Mostly Unsettled to Active with isolated Minor 
                storm periods possible and isolated Major storm 
                periods possible at high latitudes.
01 Nov    12    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to increase late in 
the UT day of 30 October and into 31 October with the anticipated 
arrival of CMEs. Minor storm periods are possible for the Australian 
region and Major storm periods are possible for high latitudes 
during this interval.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
31 Oct      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair-poor
01 Nov      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair-poor

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next 
few days with a chance of SWFs. Some depressions may be observed 
during 31 October - 1 November in response to anticipated elevated 
geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
29 Oct   117

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      68
Oct      72
Nov      70

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 Oct    95    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
31 Oct    70    Slightly enhanced to mildly depressed at times.
01 Nov    80    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 31 was issued on 29 
October and is current for 29-30 Oct. HF conditions are still 
enhanced due to high levels of ionising EUV flux from multiple 
sunspot regions. Short wave fadeouts possible for 30 October 
with a reasonable chance of isolated M and X flares from solar 
active regions. Some isolated depressions are possible during 
31 October in response to anticipated elevated geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.8E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: C1.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Oct
Speed: 278 km/sec  Density:    2.0 p/cc  Temp:    14400 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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