[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 October 13 issued 2353 UT on 29 Oct 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Oct 30 10:53:32 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 OCTOBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 30 OCTOBER - 01 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Oct: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
X2.3 2154UT probable all East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Oct: 153/108
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Oct 31 Oct 01 Nov
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 145/99 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity reached High levels during 29 October
with an X2-flare at 2154UT. There is still the potential for
further flare activity for 30 October. CME activity observed
in association with recent flares is expected to have predominantly
glancing blows, with the most significant impact expected late
in the UT day of 30 October and into 31 October. Solar wind speeds
have been predominantly low and are expected to increase late
in the UT day of 30 October with the arrival of CMEs.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 29 Oct : A K
Australian Region 6 11132122
Cocos Island 4 11122121
Darwin 6 11132122
Townsville 8 21133123
Learmonth 7 21132222
Alice Springs 7 20132123
Culgoora 6 11132122
Camden 6 11132122
Canberra 3 10022012
Launceston 6 21132122
Hobart 5 10132122
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Oct :
Macquarie Island 6 00043011
Casey 10 23232223
Mawson 18 22122264
Davis 10 12233233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 3 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 1 0100 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Oct 18 Initially Quiet to Unsettled with Minor storm
periods possible late in the UT day with Major
storm periods possible at high latitudes.
31 Oct 25 Mostly Unsettled to Active with isolated Minor
storm periods possible and isolated Major storm
periods possible at high latitudes.
01 Nov 12 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to increase late in
the UT day of 30 October and into 31 October with the anticipated
arrival of CMEs. Minor storm periods are possible for the Australian
region and Major storm periods are possible for high latitudes
during this interval.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
31 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair-poor
01 Nov Normal Normal-fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next
few days with a chance of SWFs. Some depressions may be observed
during 31 October - 1 November in response to anticipated elevated
geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Oct 117
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 68
Oct 72
Nov 70
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Oct 95 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
31 Oct 70 Slightly enhanced to mildly depressed at times.
01 Nov 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 31 was issued on 29
October and is current for 29-30 Oct. HF conditions are still
enhanced due to high levels of ionising EUV flux from multiple
sunspot regions. Short wave fadeouts possible for 30 October
with a reasonable chance of isolated M and X flares from solar
active regions. Some isolated depressions are possible during
31 October in response to anticipated elevated geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Oct
Speed: 278 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 14400 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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