[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 October 13 issued 2330 UT on 13 Oct 2013

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Oct 14 10:30:17 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 OCTOBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 14 OCTOBER - 16 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Oct:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/--    0043UT  possible   lower  West Pacific

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Oct: 129/82


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 Oct             15 Oct             16 Oct
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   125/78             125/78             125/78

COMMENT: Solar activity has been Moderate with an M1 flare from 
region 1865(S21E08) peaking at 0043UT. A partial halo CME was 
observed in association with this event which is directed to 
the south, however some part of the ejected plasma cloud is expected 
to strike the Earth with an estimated arrival late on the 15th 
or early on the 16th of October UT. This is in addition to the 
CME observed on the 11th of October that is expected to cause 
a glancing blow late on the 14th or early on the 15th. Region 
1861(S08W17) also produced a C4 class flare peaking at 1758UT. 
Coronagraph imagery after this time is still patchy, but a CME 
can be observed possibly in association with this event, directed 
to the south west. Initial analysis suggests it may not be geo-effective 
however more detail will be given in tomorrow's report when more 
data should be available. Solar wind conditions are ambient. 
Solar activity is expected to remain at mostly Low levels with 
some isolated M class flares probable over the next few days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Oct: Quiet

Estimated Indices 13 Oct : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11100001
      Darwin               2   21100111
      Townsville           2   21000011
      Learmonth            1   11000001
      Norfolk Island       0   00000001
      Culgoora             2   21110011
      Camden               1   10100001
      Canberra             0   10000000
      Launceston           3   21101111
      Hobart               1   10101001    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Oct :
      Davis                6   32211022

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Oct : 
      Darwin               4   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs       NA
      Gingin              NA
      Canberra            NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4   0101 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 Oct    12    Unsettled
15 Oct    20    Active
16 Oct    12    Unsettled

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 29 was issued on 13 October 
and is current for 14-16 Oct. Magnetic conditions are Quiet. 
A coronal hole high speed wind stream is expected to arrive at 
Earth sometime in the next 24 hours. In addition, a glancing 
blow from a CME is expected late in the day on the 14th or early 
on the 15th of October UT. A subsequent CME strike is expected 
around 24 hours after the first. This is expected to cause Unsettled 
conditions on the 14th, with a possible Active period. Unsettled 
to Active conditions are expected on the 15th with mostly Unsettled 
conditions expected for the 16th.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
15 Oct      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor
16 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
13 Oct    94

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      68
Oct      72
Nov      70

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 Oct    90    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
15 Oct    80    Near predicted monthly values
16 Oct    70    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 26 was issued on 12 
October and is current for 12-14 Oct. HF conditions are currently 
enhanced due to high levels of ionising EUV flux from multiple 
sunspot regions. Expected geomagnetic activity over the next 
few days may reduce the maximum useable frequency from the currently 
enhanced levels, however at this stage conditions are not expected 
to drop significantly below the forecast monthly values.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 12 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Oct
Speed: 372 km/sec  Density:    2.9 p/cc  Temp:    39800 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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