[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 October 13 issued 2352 UT on 11 Oct 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Oct 12 10:52:33 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 OCTOBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 12 OCTOBER - 14 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Oct: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.5 0728UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Oct: 129/82
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Oct 13 Oct 14 Oct
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 135/89 130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity has been Moderate with an M1 class flare
and multiple C class flares. The C flare activity was produced
mainly by regions 1865 and 1861. The M1 flare was produced by
a region around the eastern limb with an associated strong type
II radio burst seen in the IPS radio spectrographs at Culgoora
and Learmonth with a shock speed of 924 KM/S. A large CME was
seen in association with the event however it is directed out
to the east and is unlikely to be geo-effective. A smaller CME
in association with a C class flare was also observed. This is
also directed mostly to the east but may have an earth directed
component. Further analysis of this event with be given in tomorrow's
report when more data should become available. Solar wind conditions
are ambient. Flare activity is expected to be Moderate for the
next few days with regions 1865 and 1861 in addition to the region
rotating around from the east having potential to produce M class
flares.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 11 Oct : A K
Australian Region 3 11112111
Cocos Island 2 02100110
Darwin 2 11111010
Townsville 4 21212111
Learmonth 3 12112110
Alice Springs 3 11111111
Culgoora 2 11112001
Gingin 3 21112110
Camden 4 11212111
Canberra 2 11112000
Hobart 4 12222101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Oct :
Macquarie Island 4 02213000
Casey 9 34322110
Mawson 15 34232243
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Oct :
Darwin 8 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 9 3422 1102
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Oct 5 Quiet
13 Oct 5 Quiet
14 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions are Quiet and are expected to remain
mostly Quiet for the next few days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Oct Normal Normal Normal
13 Oct Normal Normal Normal
14 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Oct 80
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 68
Oct 72
Nov 70
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Oct 70 Near predicted monthly values
13 Oct 70 Near predicted monthly values
14 Oct 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal over
the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 9.8E+03
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Oct
Speed: 450 km/sec Density: 2.2 p/cc Temp: 18700 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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