[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 October 13 issued 2330 UT on 09 Oct 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Oct 10 10:30:17 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 OCTOBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 OCTOBER - 12 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Oct: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2/-- 0148UT possible lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Oct: 113/64
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Oct 11 Oct 12 Oct
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity was Moderate over the last 24 hours with
an M2 flare from region 1865(S21E58). There are numerous small
sunspot regions on the visible Sun. The solar wind speed is falling
from a high or 700 km/s early in the UT day to around 450 km/s.
The IMF Bt and Bz components are returning to ambient levels.
Flare activity is expected to be at mostly Low levels for the
next 3 days, with a chance of M class flares.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Oct: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 09 Oct : A K
Australian Region 20 44443323
Cocos Island 17 43433323
Darwin 18 44433323
Townsville 21 44443324
Learmonth 29 55543423
Alice Springs 22 45443323
Culgoora 19 44442323
Gingin 22 54434323
Camden 20 -5442323
Canberra 17 34442323
Hobart 25 45543323
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Oct :
Macquarie Island 45 44764513
Casey 23 55433323
Mawson 35 66543313
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Oct :
Darwin 74 (Active)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 43 (Unsettled)
Alice Springs 3 (Quiet)
Gingin 62 (Active)
Canberra 25 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 22
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 14 0101 1155
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Oct 12 Unsettled
11 Oct 5 Quiet
12 Oct 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were Active early in the previous
day before returning to mostly Unsettled after around 12UT. Unsettled
conditions are expected to continue for the next 24 hours before
returning to Quiet for the following 2 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
11 Oct Normal Normal Normal
12 Oct Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Oct 75
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 68
Oct 72
Nov 70
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Oct 60 Near predicted monthly values
11 Oct 72 Near predicted monthly values
12 Oct 72 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS Preliminary HF Communications Warning 25 was issued
on 8 October and is current for 9-10 Oct. HF communication conditions
have been variable over the last 24 hours with some enhanced
and depressed period of around +/- 20%. Central and northern
Australia should see mostly normal conditions over the next day,
with some depressed periods possible for central regions. Southern
regions are expected to see depressions of up to 30% over the
next 24 hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Oct
Speed: 301 km/sec Density: 3.3 p/cc Temp: 33200 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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