[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 November 13 issued 2330 UT on 28 Nov 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Nov 29 10:30:17 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 NOVEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 29 NOVEMBER - 01 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Nov: 133/87
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Nov 30 Nov 01 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 135/89 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity was low during the last 24 hours. Two
low level C-class flares were observed during this period. Solar
wind speed mostly stayed between 260 and 340 km/s during the
last 24 hours. IMF Bz mostly stayed between +/- 4nT during this
period. Low levels of solar activity may be expected for the
next three days with some possibility of isolated M-class event.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 28 Nov : A K
Australian Region 1 11001101
Darwin 2 11101101
Townsville 2 21101101
Learmonth 2 11101102
Alice Springs 1 10001001
Culgoora 1 10001110
Gingin 1 11001101
Camden 2 11101111
Canberra 0 00000000
Launceston 1 11001101
Hobart 1 11001100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Nov :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 6 23311111
Mawson 4 11002123
Davis 3 12102111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Nov :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 1 0000 0100
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Nov 3 Quiet
30 Nov 3 Quiet
01 Dec 3 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet for the last 24 hours.
Nearly similar conditions may be expected for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Nov Normal Normal Normal
30 Nov Normal Normal Normal
01 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions with periods of 20 to 30%
MUF enhancements were observed during the last 24 hours. Strong
sporadic E-layers were observed on some mid latitude locations
during this period. Mostly normal HF conditions with mild MUFs
enhancements may be expected for the next 3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Nov 143
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 88
Nov 71
Dec 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Nov 140 Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
30 Nov 140 Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
01 Dec 140 Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions with periods of 20 to 30%
MUF enhancements were observed across Aus/NZ region during the
last 24 hours. Strong sporadic E-layers were observed on some
mid latitude locations during this period. Mostly normal HF conditions
with mild MUFs enhancements may be expected for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.6E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.40E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Nov
Speed: 307 km/sec Density: 1.4 p/cc Temp: 22000 K Bz: 4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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