[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 November 13 issued 2330 UT on 21 Nov 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Nov 22 10:30:18 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 NOVEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 22 NOVEMBER - 24 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Nov: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1/-- 1111UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Nov: 141/95
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Nov 23 Nov 24 Nov
Activity Low to moderate Low Low
Fadeouts Possible None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 135/89 135/89
COMMENT: The background solar UV flux is trending downwards as
active regions rotate toward and beyond the western limb. The
current 3-day outlook is for C-class solar X-ray flares, with
a small chance of an M-class flare. AR1893 unleashed an M1.2
solar flare peaking at 11:11 UT on 21 Nov. AR1893 was located
just beyond the south western limb and the associated CME is
not expected to be geoeffective. The solar wind speed declined
from about 380 km/s to 330 km/s during 21 Nov. The IMF Bz component
has been fluctuating between about -3 nT and +2 nT. The current
3 day outlook remains for moderate solar wind conditions impacting
Earth.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 21 Nov : A K
Australian Region 1 10000011
Darwin 2 21000011
Townsville 1 10000011
Learmonth 2 11001002
Alice Springs 0 00000001
Culgoora 1 10000011
Gingin 1 11000011
Camden 1 10000011
Canberra 0 00000000
Launceston 1 10010011
Hobart 0 10000001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Nov :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 6 33211011
Mawson 8 23113123
Davis 9 23223032
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 1111 2101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Nov 4 Quiet
23 Nov 5 Quiet
24 Nov 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were very quiet during 21 Nov
and are expected to remain quiet during the next 48 hours.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Nov Enhanced Enhanced Strongly Enhanced
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Nov Enhanced Enhanced Strongly Enhanced
23 Nov Enhanced Enhanced Enhanced
24 Nov Enhanced Enhanced Enhanced
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain enhanced at low
and middle latitude stations, and strongly enhanced at high latitude
stations, during the next 48 hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Nov 128
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available but probably enhanced.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 5-40% for most of the day.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 10-35% for most of the day.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15-50% for most of the day
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20-60% for most of the day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 88
Nov 71
Dec 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Nov 135 Enhanced by 15-40% above predicted monthly values
23 Nov 130 Enhanced by 15-30% above predicted monthly values
24 Nov 130 Enhanced by 10-30% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: The ionospheric propagation support was enhanced at
most Australian stations during 21 Nov. The only Australian station
to record persistent near normal propagation conditions was Perth
during the day time. The propagation conditions tended to be
more strongly enhanced for stations located at higher latitudes.
The ionospheric propagation support was especially strong for
Australian Antarctic stations, with many ionosondes recording
persistent foF2 values corresponding to local T indices of approximately
250. The propagation support is expected to remain strongly enhanced,
especially at high latitude stations, but eventually weaken due
to the gradual decline of solar UV flux combined with seasonal
thermospheric behaviour.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 6.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Nov
Speed: 388 km/sec Density: 3.2 p/cc Temp: 62700 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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