[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 November 13 issued 2330 UT on 18 Nov 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Nov 19 10:30:19 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 NOVEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 19 NOVEMBER - 21 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Nov: 163/117
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Nov 20 Nov 21 Nov
Activity Low to moderate Low Low
Fadeouts Possible None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 155/109 150/105
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with
only minor flare activity from active regions 1893, 1897 and
1900. No Earthward directed CMEs were observed. Solar activity
is expected to be low to moderate 19-Nov, with chance of isolated
M-class flares. The solar wind speed dropped below 400km/s as
the Earth moved out of the coronal hole wind stream. The IMF
Bz component was stable about 0nT and total IMF remains below
3nT. Solar wind conditions are expected to be quiet next three
days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 18 Nov : A K
Australian Region 1 21100000
Darwin 2 21100111
Townsville 2 21000011
Learmonth 2 21100001
Alice Springs 0 20000000
Culgoora 0 10100000
Gingin 2 21100100
Camden 1 20100010
Canberra 0 10000000
Launceston 2 21111001
Hobart 0 10100000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Nov :
Macquarie Island 1 01101000
Casey 12 34431111
Mawson 5 32221110
Davis 7 32322110
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 1132 2111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Nov 5 Quiet
20 Nov 5 Quiet
21 Nov 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet over the last 24 hours
in the Australian region. Expect quiet conditions for the next
3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Nov Normal Normal Normal
20 Nov Normal Normal Normal
21 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal with
a chance of SWFs 19-Nov.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Nov 120
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 88
Nov 71
Dec 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Nov 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
20 Nov 105 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
21 Nov 100 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Strong ionospheric support was observed at all locations
in the Australian region over the last 24 hours, particularly
overnight. The enhanced conditions are expected to continue for
the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Nov
Speed: 470 km/sec Density: 1.9 p/cc Temp: 67900 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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