[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 November 13 issued 2332 UT on 16 Nov 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Nov 17 10:32:40 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 NOVEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 17 NOVEMBER - 19 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Nov: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.2 0454UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.6 0750UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Nov: 175/129
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Nov 18 Nov 19 Nov
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 175/129 175/129 170/124
COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate over the last 24 hours,
with an M1 and four C-class flares from active region 1900 (S19W29).
Regions 1893 and 1897 also produced C-class flares. Solar activity
is expected to be low to moderate for the next 3 days. The solar
wind speed increased from around 03UT with the onset of a coronal
hole effects and has hovered around 500 km/s since around 13UT.
The IMF Bz component varied up to around +10nT and down to -7nT,
but has remained within +/-5nT for the last 6 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 16 Nov : A K
Australian Region 8 22322222
Darwin 9 22322223
Townsville 9 22323222
Learmonth 8 22332212
Alice Springs 9 23322222
Culgoora 8 22322222
Gingin 8 32322212
Camden 9 22323222
Canberra 7 22322112
Launceston 12 22433223
Hobart 9 22323222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Nov :
Macquarie Island 9 12333212
Casey 26 35643223
Mawson 20 44543222
Davis 27 44653222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Nov :
Darwin 14 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 8 (Quiet)
Canberra 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8 1211 2333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Nov 10 Quiet to Unsettled
18 Nov 5 Quiet
19 Nov 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled over
the last 24 hours, with some active to storm level periods in
Antarctica. Similar conditions are expected for 17-Nov, with
quiet conditions likely on 18-19 Nov.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 Nov Normal Normal Normal
19 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal for the
next few days with a chance of SWFs. Some possible high-latitude
degraded periods on 17-Nov.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Nov 104
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 88
Nov 71
Dec 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Nov 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
18 Nov 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
19 Nov 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 44 was issued on 15
November and is current for 16-18 Nov. Significant MUF enhancements
were observed at Niue Island and during local night and after
dawn in southern AUS/NZ. Enhanced conditions are expected to
continue for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Nov
Speed: 350 km/sec Density: 2.8 p/cc Temp: 52600 K Bz: -4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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