[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 November 13 issued 2330 UT on 14 Nov 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Nov 15 10:30:24 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 NOVEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 15 NOVEMBER - 17 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Nov: 176/130
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Nov 16 Nov 17 Nov
Activity Low to moderate Low Low
Fadeouts Possible None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 175/129 175/129 175/129
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with
several C-class flares, the largest being a C4.9 event from active
region 1897 (S21E35). Regions 1893 (S12W11) and 1900 (S19W13)
grew in area. Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate
for 15-Nov and low for 16-17 Nov. The solar wind speed drifted
down from ~400 km/s to ~350 km/s over the UT day. The IMF Bz
component was mostly neutral, with a negative bias since around
06UT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 14 Nov : A K
Australian Region 2 10101002
Darwin 3 10111112
Townsville 2 10111011
Learmonth 2 01101002
Alice Springs 1 00101002
Culgoora 1 10101001
Gingin 1 00100002
Camden 1 10101001
Canberra 0 00100001
Launceston 3 11212002
Hobart 2 01201001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Nov :
Macquarie Island 0 00100001
Casey 8 22322222
Mawson 11 11222244
Davis 7 11332221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4 0111 2111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
16 Nov 10 Quiet to Unsettled
17 Nov 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was quiet over the last 24 hours.
Effects of the northern hemisphere coronal hole are expected
to commence during 15-Nov, resulting in unsettled periods which
could persist into 16-Nov. Conditions should return to quiet
levels by 17-Nov.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
16 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
17 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal for the
next few days with a small chance of SWFs on 15-Nov. Some degraded
conditions at high latitudes are possible 15-16 Nov.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Nov 130
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 88
Nov 71
Dec 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Nov 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
16 Nov 100 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
17 Nov 100 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 43 was issued on 13
November and is current for 13-15 Nov. Significant MUF enhancements
were observed over the last 24 hours at Niue Island and in southern
AUS/NZ, and overnight in northern AUS. Enhanced conditions are
expected to continue for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Nov
Speed: 385 km/sec Density: 1.4 p/cc Temp: 70100 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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