[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 November 13 issued 2335 UT on 11 Nov 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Nov 12 10:35:22 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 NOVEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 12 NOVEMBER - 14 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Nov: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.4 1119UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Nov: 164/118
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Nov 13 Nov 14 Nov
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 165/119 165/119 165/119
COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was moderate,
with an M2.4 X-ray flare at 11/1118UT from active region 1895
(S16E64). Region 1890 (S11W31) produced three C-class events.
Solar activity is expected to be moderate for the next 3 days,
with a chance of X-class flares. Region 1875 (N6) which previously
produced X-flare(s) is due to return around 12 Nov. The solar
wind varied in the range ~450-550 km/s, with an extended period
from 02-08UT below -5nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Nov: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 11 Nov : A K
Australian Region 9 22323321
Cocos Island 7 22223220
Darwin 9 22323321
Townsville 10 22423311
Learmonth 11 32323322
Alice Springs 9 22323321
Culgoora 11 23423310
Gingin 10 32323321
Camden 11 23423310
Canberra 11 22433310
Launceston 13 33-34321
Hobart 10 33-33210
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Nov :
Macquarie Island 29 34654421
Casey 18 45333322
Mawson 48 46645643
Davis 54 44656742
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Nov :
Darwin 10 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 12 (Quiet)
Canberra 9 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 11 3323 2233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Nov 10 Quiet to Unsettled
13 Nov 15 Unsettled to Active
14 Nov 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic condition were mostly quiet to unsettled
over the last 24 hours, with a brief period at active to minor
storm levels over the Australian region, probably due to a sustained
period of southward IMF Bz. Active to storm levels were observed
for much of the UT day in Antarctica. Conditions are expected
to be quiet to unsettled over the Australian region on 12-Nov
with unsettled to active conditions possible on 13-14 Nov if
effects of the 10-Nov CME eventuate.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Nov Normal Normal Normal
13 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
14 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal for the
next few days with the chance of SWFs. Some degraded conditions
are possible on 13-14 Nov at high latitudes if an expected increase
in geomagnetic activity eventuates.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Nov 108
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 88
Nov 71
Dec 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Nov 100 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
13 Nov 90 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
14 Nov 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Enhanced MUFs were observed for Northern AUS and Niue
Island regions during local night on 11-Nov. MUFs were near predicted
monthly values for Southern AUS/NZ and Antarctic regions. MUFs
are expected to be near predicted monthly values to mildly enhanced
in the Australian region for most of 12-13 Nov. Some depressed
periods in Southern AUS/NZ are possible later on 13-Nov and into
14-Nov if an expected increase in geomagnetic activity occurs.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Nov
Speed: 565 km/sec Density: 1.3 p/cc Temp: 144000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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