[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 November 13 issued 2333 UT on 01 Nov 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Nov 2 10:33:35 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 NOVEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 02 NOVEMBER - 04 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:**YELLOW** MAG:GREEN ION:**YELLOW**
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Nov: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M6.3 1954UT probable lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Nov: 145/99
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Nov 03 Nov 04 Nov
Activity Low to moderate Low Low
Fadeouts Possible None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 145/99 145/99
COMMENT: Solar activity reached High levels during 1 November
due to an M6-flare from region 1884 otherwise solar activity
was mostly Low. Solar activity is expected to be predominantly
Low for 2 November with the chance of isolated M-flares. Solar
wind speeds have been predominantly below 400 km/s during 1 November
and are expected to continue at low levels for the next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 01 Nov : A K
Australian Region 5 22113011
Cocos Island 2 12101001
Darwin 3 12112011
Townsville 5 12113111
Learmonth 6 22123012
Alice Springs 4 11113011
Culgoora 5 22113011
Camden 5 22123001
Canberra 2 11012000
Launceston 5 22123011
Hobart 5 22123001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Nov :
Macquarie Island 7 12234000
Casey 11 33333122
Mawson 17 44323243
Davis 13 34342221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5 2011 1221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Nov 6 Mostly Quiet with the chance of isolated Unsettled
periods.
03 Nov 5 Quiet
04 Nov 5 Quiet
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
03 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
04 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
COMMENT: Mostly good to fair HF conditions are expected for the
next few days with the chance of SWFs and isolated depressions
at times.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Nov 109
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 88
Nov 71
Dec 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Nov 85 Variable conditions from enhanced to depressed
at times
03 Nov 90 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced
04 Nov 90 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be variable during 2 November
with mostly normal to good conditions and isolated depressions
at times. There is still the chance of SWFs for 2 November.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 8.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.30E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Oct
Speed: 376 km/sec Density: 3.7 p/cc Temp: 109000 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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