[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 May 13 issued 2351 UT on 25 May 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun May 26 09:51:49 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 MAY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 26 MAY - 28 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 May: 121/73
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 May 27 May 28 May
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 120/72 125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours with only
minor C-class activity, the largest event being a C2.1 flare
from region 1755 at 1049UT. Activity is expected to be Low for
the next 3 days with the small chance of a M-class flare. Solar
wind velocity increased due to CME effects from ~520km/s at 00UT
to be ~760 km/s at the time of this report. Bz ranged between
+9nT and -11nT with sustained southward periods. The 10MeV protons
dropped to below the 10.0 pfu threshold level. Solar wind speed
is expected to remain elevated for the next 2 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 May: Unsettled to
Active
Estimated Indices 25 May : A K
Australian Region 19 33344334
Cocos Island 13 32233333
Darwin 18 33344234
Townsville 19 33344334
Learmonth 26 32353355
Alice Springs 18 33244334
Culgoora 22 33345334
Gingin 23 33234355
Camden 23 34345334
Canberra 16 23234334
Hobart 23 34345334
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 May :
Macquarie Island 46 35456564
Casey 19 43343334
Mawson 66 66443676
Davis - --------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 May :
Darwin 12 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 4 (Quiet)
Gingin 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 44 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 May : A
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 29
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 May : A K
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 23 3423 3364
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 May 15 Unsettled to Active
27 May 10 Unsettled
28 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Unsettled to Active over the
last 24 hours with isolated Minor Storm periods. The increased
activity due to the ongoing effects of the glancing impact of
the 22May M5-class flare CME. Unsettled to Active conditions
are expected for 26May and mostly Unsettled conditions expected
for 27May. Quiet to Unsettled conditions 28May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 May Normal Normal Poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 May Normal Normal Fair-poor
27 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
28 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions were observed over the last
24 hours for low to mid latitudes with poor ionospheric support
at high latitudes due to the recent PCA event and increased geomagnetic
activity. Depressed MUFs possible for mid latitudes and disturbed
conditions at high latitudes on 26-27 May due to increased geomagnetic
activity. SWFs possible over the next few days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 May 82
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 45% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 May 70 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
27 May 75 Near predicted monthly values
28 May 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Enhanced MUFs observed during local day for IPS Cocos
Is. and Niue Is. Near predicted monthly values for Northern and
Southern AUS/NZ regions over the last 24 hours. MUFs expected
to be near monthly predicted values for 26May-27May with possible
depressed periods for Southern AUS/NZ regions and disturbed conditions
for Antarctic regions due to increased geomagnetic activity.
Normal ionospheric support expected for 28May. SWFs possible
over this forecast period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.8E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 5.2E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 May
Speed: 461 km/sec Density: 4.4 p/cc Temp: 174000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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