[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 May 13 issued 2330 UT on 14 May 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed May 15 09:30:17 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 MAY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 15 MAY - 17 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 May: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
X3.2 0111UT probable all West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 May: 148/102
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 May 16 May 17 May
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 145/99 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity was High over the last 24 hours due to
an X3.2 magnitude X-ray flare at 0111UT from active region 1748
(N11E63) newly rotated onto the visible disk. The flare was associated
with a Type II radio sweep and CME, with an estimated speed from
the Type II of 1300km/s. Due to its source location near the
limb, the CME is not expected to be geoeffective. The magnetic
complexity of this region remains unclear due to its near limb
location, however it is a large region and highly active and
is expected to produce further flaring over the next few days.
Any associated CMEs will be of more significance when it rotates
further onto the visible disk. Solar activity is expected to
be Moderate for the next 3 days with the further chance of isolated
X-class flares from AR1748. Region AR1745 (N14E30) has decreased
in size to 450mil, but remains a beta-gamma magnetic configuration.
Expect C class flares from this region. The solar wind speed
remains near 350km/s, and the IMF relatively stable. The total
magnetic field and solar wind density are slightly elevated.
EPAM ions (often a precurser to geomagnetic activity) remain
elevated but below the event threshold, as are protons at geosynchronous
orbit. Solar wind modelling suggests a glancing blow from an
erupting filament CME from 12 May sometime in the first half
of the UT day 15-May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 May: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 14 May : A K
Australian Region 6 21223211
Cocos Island 5 20222211
Darwin 5 -1122212
Townsville 10 32233222
Learmonth 4 -0222211
Alice Springs 7 30223211
Culgoora 7 21223212
Gingin 8 31223221
Camden 7 21223212
Canberra 5 10123211
Hobart 9 21234211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 May :
Macquarie Island 19 00256311
Casey 6 32212111
Mawson 10 22222324
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 14 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 May : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 May : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 1111 1322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 May 15 Unsettled to Active
16 May 12 Unsettled
17 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled conditions observed over the last
24 hours. Mostly Quiet conditions expected early on 15-May, becoming
Unsettled with isolated Active periods later in the day following
a possible glancing blow from a erupting filament CME. The modelling
suggests a CME arrival time near 6UT, which would result in overnight
geomagnetic activity in the Australian region.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
16 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
17 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly Normal conditions expected with the chance of
short-wave fadeouts from isolated M and X class flares next three
days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 May 88
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 55% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 May 90 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
16 May 70 Near predicted monthly values
17 May 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 9 was issued on 13
May and is current for 14-15 May. A short-wave fadeout, peaking
at 0111UT was observed on 14-May, centred over the West Pacific
and affecting all of mainland Australia. Otherwise, mostly normal
ionospheric support observed over the AUS/NZ region for the last
24 hours. MUFs expected to be near predicted monthly values 15-May,
with a chance of depressed periods for Southern AUS/NZ regions
16-17 May. Short wave fadeouts possible next two days with a
reasonable chance of isolated M and X flares from solar active
regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 May
Speed: 359 km/sec Density: 1.7 p/cc Temp: 44300 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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