[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 May 13 issued 2335 UT on 08 May 2013

Thu May 9 09:35:56 EST 2013

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 MAY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 09 MAY - 11 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 May: 127/80

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 May             10 May             11 May
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   125/78             125/78             120/72

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours with region 
1738 being the source of the largest event with a C2.9 class 
flare at 0022UT. Solar activity is expected to range between 
Low to Moderate for the next 3 days with the chance of a M-class 
events. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) Bz component 
ranged between +/-4nT over the UT day with a notable southward 
periods between 08UT-10UT and 13UT-16UT. Solar wind speed remained 
elevated at ~500km/s. Solar wind speed is expected to decline 
over the next 24 hours.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 May: Quiet

Estimated Indices 08 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   22211211
      Cocos Island         4   21211111
      Darwin               8   22222322
      Townsville           7   22222222
      Learmonth            7   22221322
      Alice Springs        6   22211312
      Culgoora             4   12211211
      Gingin               6   22211311
      Camden               4   12211211
      Canberra             4   11211211
      Hobart               6   22221311    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 May :
      Macquarie Island     3   11130200
      Casey               10   24322222
      Mawson              19   34433334

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 May : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             8   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             12   4332 2321     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 May     6    Quiet
10 May     6    Quiet
11 May     6    Quiet

COMMENT: Quiet conditions with Unsettled periods observed over 
the last 24 hours. Solar wind speed is expected to decline over 
the next 24 hours as recent coronal hole effects attenuate. Quiet 
conditions are expected for the next 3 days.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
10 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
11 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly Normal conditions expected with the chance of 
occasional short-wave fadeouts from M class flares.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
08 May    89

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:  69

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 May    85    Near predicted monthly values
10 May    85    Near predicted monthly values
11 May    85    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Normal ionospheric support observed over the AUS/NZ 
region for the last 24 hours with notable enhancements for IPS 
Cocos Is, Nuie and Darwin stations. Sporadic E observed between 
10UT-18UT for Cocos Is and Norfolk stations. MUF's expected to 
be near predicted monthly values over the next 3 days with the 
chance of depressed ionospheric conditions for Southern AUS/NZ 
and Northern AUS regions and further enhanced periods for Cocos 
and Niue stations during local day. Short wave fadeouts possible 
with reasonable chance of M flares from active regions.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 07 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 May
Speed: 521 km/sec  Density:    2.2 p/cc  Temp:   148000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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