[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 March 13 issued 2330 UT on 30 Mar 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Mar 31 10:30:15 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 MARCH 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 31 MARCH - 02 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Mar: 108/58
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 Mar 01 Apr 02 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 120/72 125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the UT day, 30 March.
Solar activity is expected to remain Very Low over the next 3
days. The solar wind speed ranged from 500 to 600km/s over the
last 24 hours and is expected to return to light to moderate
levels today, 31 March. The Bz component of the interplanetary
magnetic field ranged between +5/-7nT. A type II sweep estimated
at approximately 800km/s was observed by Sagamore Hill and San
Vito Solar Observatories, however no associated CME was evident
based on LASCO images.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 30 Mar : A K
Australian Region 8 33221122
Darwin 9 33222222
Townsville 10 33222232
Learmonth 10 33222232
Norfolk Island 8 33221122
Culgoora 7 33121121
Gingin 10 33222232
Camden 7 33121121
Canberra 6 33121021
Hobart 9 34221121
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Mar :
Macquarie Island 14 45232111
Casey 17 54422132
Mawson 47 56433275
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Mar :
Darwin 13 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 5 (Quiet)
Canberra 5 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 16
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 19
Planetary 26 3454 4533
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 Mar 6 Quiet
01 Apr 4 Quiet
02 Apr 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Unsettled to Active levels noted early in the UT day,
30 March, with Active to Minor Storm levels at high latitudes.
As day progressed activity subsided to mostly Quiet levels. Expect
geomagnetic activity to remain at mostly Quiet levels for the
next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Mar Normal Normal Normal
01 Apr Normal Normal Normal
02 Apr Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Mar 49
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 35% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 40% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 25% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 Mar 60 Near predicted monthly values
01 Apr 69 Near predicted monthly values
02 Apr 69 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions were depressed over the Australian and
Antarctic regions over the UT day, 30 March due to geomagnetic
activity. Also noted was isolated cases of sporadic E during
local night time hours, particularly on the eastern coast. Expect
MUFs to return to near predicted values over the next three days
as geomagnetic activity subsides.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Mar
Speed: 450 km/sec Density: 3.5 p/cc Temp: 132000 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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