[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 March 13 issued 2330 UT on 28 Mar 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Mar 29 10:30:16 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 MARCH 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 29 MARCH - 31 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Mar: 99/46
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Mar 30 Mar 31 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 105/54 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the UT day, 28 March.
Solar activity is expected to remain Very Low over the next 3
days. The solar wind speed ranged from 560 to 390km/s over the
last 24 hours and the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic
field ranged between +3/-5nT. Expect the solar speed to remain
light to moderate over the UT day, 29 March.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 28 Mar : A K
Australian Region 6 21121321
Darwin 7 22122321
Townsville 7 22221321
Learmonth 10 32132421
Norfolk Island 5 21221221
Culgoora 5 21121221
Gingin 8 32131320
Camden 6 21121321
Canberra 4 21120310
Hobart 7 21231321
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Mar :
Macquarie Island 14 31352330
Casey 11 33422320
Mawson 19 43323335
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 57 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 14 1323 3434
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Mar 6 Quiet
30 Mar 4 Quiet
31 Mar 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Expect a return to mostly Quiet levels of geomagnetic
activity.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Mar Normal Normal Normal
30 Mar Normal Normal Normal
31 Mar Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Mar 51
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Mar 60 Near predicted monthly values
30 Mar 69 Near predicted monthly values
31 Mar 69 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 6 was issued on 27 March
and is current for 28-29 Mar. F0F2 values were below monthly
predicted values for most of the Australian region, particularly
during the local day time hours. The ionosphere appears to be
recovering earlier then predicted, expect a return to near monthly
predicted values over the next three days, except for mild depressions
at Cocos and Niue stations during local night time hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Mar
Speed: 444 km/sec Density: 7.8 p/cc Temp: 150000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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