[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 March 13 issued 2330 UT on 24 Mar 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Mar 25 10:30:20 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 MARCH 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 25 MARCH - 27 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Mar: 96/43
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Mar 26 Mar 27 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity has been very low with no solar flares
during the previous 24 hours. The background X ray flux has declined
to the B1.6 level. Solar activity is expected to remain very
low during the next 48 hours. There is only an isolated chance
of a C class solar flare. The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux has
decreased to 96 and is expected to decrease further during the
next 48 hours. LASCO observations show a fast CME launched from
the west limb near 15 UT on 24 March. This CME seems to merge
with a slower CME launched from the north west limb early in
the UT day. The combined event is not Earthward pointing. The
solar wind speed is presently light near 380 km/s. The magnitude
of the IMF is presently about 4 nT and Bz has been fluctuating
between -4 nT and +4 nT. A low latitude coronal hole is approaching
the central meridian of the solar disk and the associated fast
speed stream is expected to impact the Earth about 28 March.
The solar wind speed was enhanced during the same phase of the previous
solar rotation cycle.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 24 Mar : A K
Australian Region 6 22222211
Darwin 8 32222222
Townsville 6 22222221
Learmonth 5 22222210
Norfolk Island 6 21222221
Culgoora 5 21122211
Camden 6 21232211
Canberra 5 21132210
Hobart 6 12232210
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Mar :
Macquarie Island 6 11142210
Casey 9 33321221
Mawson 9 42222222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 11 2022 3234
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Mar 4 Quiet
26 Mar 4 Quiet
27 Mar 6 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly quiet during 24 March.
Mid-latitude K indices were mostly in the range of 1 to 2 and
the Australian Dst index has been fluctuating near zero. Geomagnetic
conditions are expected to remain quiet during the next 48 hours.
Conditions are expected to become unsettled on 27 March and a
minor geomagnetic storm is possible during 28 to 29 March due
to re-occurring coronal hole effects. The Ap index was enhanced
during the same phase of the previous solar rotation cycle.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Mar Normal Normal Normal
26 Mar Normal Normal Normal
27 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Near normal conditions can be expected for most of 25
March.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Mar 67
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Mar 65 Near predicted monthly values
26 Mar 60 Near predicted monthly values
27 Mar 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: The HF propagation conditions were near normal during
24 March and they are expected to remain near normal for most
circuits during the next 48 hours. However, the propagation conditions
were slightly depressed during the night hours of 24 March at
some Australian mid-latitude stations. The Penticton 10.7 cm
solar flux is expected to decrease toward 90 during the next
few days. The T index may decrease for some propagation circuits.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Mar
Speed: 374 km/sec Density: 6.1 p/cc Temp: 38600 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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