[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 March 13 issued 2330 UT on 18 Mar 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Mar 19 10:30:15 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 MARCH 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 19 MARCH - 21 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Mar: 118/70
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Mar 20 Mar 21 Mar
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 110/60 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity has been low with C class flares mostly
from active regions 1698 and 1700. Active region 1698 will soon
disappear behind the western limb. Solar activity is expected
to be low to moderate during the next three days. The solar wind
speed continues to decline from peak values exceeding 700 km/s
during the previous two days. At present the solar wind speed
is in the range 450 to 490 km/s. The IMF remains weakly northward
(2 to 5 nT) and the solar wind number density has returned to
near normal values (1 cm^3). ACE EPAM data indicated an energetic
ion enhancement event beginning at 18/0520UT, but the energetic
particle fluxes have been declining.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 18 Mar : A K
Australian Region 9 33321122
Darwin 9 33322122
Townsville 14 33333233
Learmonth 11 33332222
Norfolk Island 9 42221132
Culgoora 7 23321111
Camden 6 23321011
Canberra 6 23320011
Hobart 6 23321011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Mar :
Macquarie Island 7 23321022
Casey 11 33432012
Mawson 13 34333122
Davis - --------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 32
Planetary 57 2166 6765
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
20 Mar 6 Quiet
21 Mar 6 Quiet
COMMENT: The minor storm conditions of the previous two days
continue to gradually abate with the Australian region Dst index
steadily increasing from approximately -100 nT to -45 nT at the
time of this report. However, unsettled geomagnetic conditions
are still possible throughout the remainder of the storm recovery
phase. In the IPS magnetometer data for 18 Mar, a weak (12 nT)
impulse was observed at 0614 UT.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Mar Poor-fair Poor-fair Poor-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
20 Mar Normal Normal Normal
21 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Normal to fair conditions can be expected at most latitudes
for the 19th of March, trending toward normal on the 20th and
21st.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Mar 20
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 45% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Mar 50 About 10% below predicted monthly values
20 Mar 60 Near predicted monthly values
21 Mar 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 5 was issued on 17 March
and is current for 18-19 Mar. HF propagation conditions were
strongly depressed at most latitudes throughout 18th March but
have been trending to near normal conditions at most stations
throughout the night and early morning. Depressed conditions
and short wave fadeouts are still possible on the 19th March.
Near normal MUF values are expected on 20th and 21st March.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+08
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 5.4E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Mar
Speed: 618 km/sec Density: 4.2 p/cc Temp: 281000 K Bz: -4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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