[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 June 13 issued 2330 UT on 28 Jun 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jun 29 09:30:22 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 JUNE 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 29 JUNE - 01 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Jun: 101/49
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Jun 30 Jun 01 Jul
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: Three, C-class flares, the largest a C7.3 at 0337 UT
from region 1778 (S17 W01). Region 1777 (S17 W37) also contributed
(C4.4 at 0159 UT). The CME from 27 Jun is unlikely to be geo-effective.
SOHO/STEREO images show another CME (~0239 UT) which is probably
associated with the region 1777 flare. Most of the material appears
to be directed southwards, out of the ecliptic plane. Any disturbance
is likely to be mild with the WSA-ENLIL model expecting the disturbance
on 30 Jun. ACE data show continued disturbance with the IMF north-south
component ranging between +12 to -13 nT, mostly southward. Wind
speed ranged between 380-440 km/s.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Jun: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 28 Jun : A K
Australian Region 15 34222334
Cocos Island 14 -422-3--
Darwin 15 34222334
Townsville 13 -422233-
Learmonth 13 -422233-
Alice Springs 12 -422133-
Norfolk Island 11 33122333
Culgoora 15 44222333
Camden 16 44222334
Canberra 10 23122333
Hobart 17 43223344
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Jun :
Macquarie Island 28 431455--
Casey 20 6322142-
Mawson 24 4422445-
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Jun :
Darwin 9 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 5 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 21
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8 1100 3233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Jun 18 Unsettled to active. Isolated minor storm periods.
30 Jun 8 Mostly quiet. Chance of unsettled to active levels
late.
01 Jul 5 Quiet
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 13 was issued on 26 June and
is current for 27-29 Jun.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Jun Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Jun Normal Fair-normal Fair-poor
30 Jun Normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
01 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Propagation conditions may be degraded at times 29-30
Jun.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Jun 72
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Depressed 25-35%
18-19, 21 UT. Sporadic E 22-23 UT.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced,
15-20% depressions 10-13 UT. Night spread F. No
Townsville data.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Enhanced to 15%
during local night. Hobart depressed 20-30% 16-18,
21-23 UT. Night spread F observed at times, all stations.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 67
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Jun 67 Near predicted monthly values
30 Jun 67 Near predicted monthly values
01 Jul 67 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Depressions to 25% possible on 29 Jun. Expect degraded
propagation conditions at times, especially during night hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.20E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:25%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Jun
Speed: 389 km/sec Density: 2.1 p/cc Temp: 71400 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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