[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 June 13 issued 2330 UT on 24 Jun 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jun 25 09:30:24 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 JUNE 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 25 JUNE - 27 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Jun: 121/73
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Jun 26 Jun 27 Jun
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 115/66 110/60
COMMENT: Four C-class flares, the largest a C9.9 at 1132 UT from
region 1778 (S16 E48). Region 1772 (S22 W79) also contributed
to the flare count. SOHO images show a halo event, while the
STEREO images confirm this as early as 0354 UT. This is likely
to impact around 27 June. ACE data show the north-south IMF component
ranged between +/-5 nT with extended southward bias. The solar
wind ranged between about 480 to 590 km/s.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Jun: Quiet to unsettled.
Isolated activity 15-18 UT.
Estimated Indices 24 Jun : A K
Australian Region 12 22233432
Cocos Island 10 12232422
Darwin 12 22233432
Townsville 13 23233432
Learmonth 17 23333532
Alice Springs 10 22223422
Norfolk Island 9 22232322
Culgoora 11 12233431
Camden 12 22233432
Canberra 7 11223321
Hobart 12 22233432
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Jun :
Macquarie Island 23 22245543
Casey 13 33322333
Mawson 62 55443585
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Jun :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 18 4443 2334
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Jun 10 Quiet to Unsettled
26 Jun 10 Quiet to Unsettled
27 Jun 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Activity may increase on 27 Jun due to CME effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 1955UT 23/06, Ended
at 2135UT 23/06
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
26 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
27 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: SWFs possible 25 to 26 Jun
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Jun 80
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced 15-35% 01-10 UT. Near predicted monthly values
to 15% depressed at other times.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values with 15-25% depressions
07-13, 15-17 UT. Enhancements to 30% at 20-21 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Depressions 25-30% at Darwin
16-18 UT. Spread F at Townsville 12-20 UT.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Enhancements to 25% mostly
07-17 UT. Spread F 04-21 UT at Hobart.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values, weak ionosphere.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 67
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Jun 80 Near predicted monthly values
26 Jun 75 Near predicted monthly values
27 Jun 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 18 was issued on 24
June and is current for 25-26 Jun.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.1E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Jun
Speed: 613 km/sec Density: 2.3 p/cc Temp: 231000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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