[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 June 13 issued 2331 UT on 23 Jun 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jun 24 09:31:31 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 JUNE 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 24 JUNE - 26 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Jun: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.9 2056UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Jun: 128/81
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Jun 25 Jun 26 Jun
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 125/78 125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity was Moderate for the UT day, 23 June.
The largest flare was M2.9-class X-ray flare from active region
(AR) 1778 (S16E61) at 23/2056UT. Expect Low to Moderate activity
over the next 3 days. The solar wind ranged between 775 and 580
km/s during the last 24 hours. The Bz component of the IMF ranged
between +7/-8nT. Expect the solar wind to slowly decrease over
the UT day 24 June. A weak shock was observed in the solar wind
at 0400UT on 23 Jun. ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion
enhancement event beginning 23/0820UT, which can be a precursor
to increased geomagnetic activity over next 24-36 hours. Most
likely due to a glancing blow from a flare observed on 21 June
0314UT from AR 1777.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 23 Jun : A K
Australian Region 11 33331322
Cocos Island 8 23321221
Darwin 10 23331322
Townsville 15 34332333
Learmonth 14 34331323
Alice Springs 9 23321322
Norfolk Island 9 33321222
Culgoora 11 33321323
Camden 13 33332323
Canberra 8 23321212
Hobart 12 33331323
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Jun :
Macquarie Island 25 35542522
Casey 17 44332333
Mawson 69 67443657
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Jun :
Darwin 13 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 19 (Quiet)
Canberra 8 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 14 4332 2233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Jun 12 Unsettled
25 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
26 Jun 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly Quiet to Unsettled
with isolated cases of Active levels in the Australian region
during the UT day, 23 June. Periods of Active to Minor Storm
levels were observed at high latitudes due to the elevated solar
wind speed and weak shock. Expect the geomagnetic field to be
Quiet to Unsettled for the next three days with isolated cases
of Active to Minor Storm levels at higher latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 23 05 2013 1630UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Jun Normal Normal Poor(PCA)
25 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
26 Jun Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Jun 76
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 67
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Jun 80 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
25 Jun 80 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
26 Jun 80 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Ionospheric conditions were mostly normal in the Australian
region during UT day, 23 June. Expect normal to minor enhancements
in the Australian region due to an increase in sunspot activity
(EUV levels) for the next three days. Proton event 10 MeV integral
flux exceeded 10 PFU, expect possible minor impacts on HF radio
in polar regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.3E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Jun
Speed: 587 km/sec Density: 1.7 p/cc Temp: 303000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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