[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 June 13 issued 2330 UT on 05 Jun 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jun 6 09:30:19 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 JUNE 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 06 JUNE - 08 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Jun: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.3 0858UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Jun: 109/59
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Jun 07 Jun 08 Jun
Activity Low to moderate Low Low
Fadeouts Possible None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 115/66 115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity has been moderate with a single M1 event
from region 1762(S30W60) beginning at 0814UT. A CME was observed
in SOHO and STEREO coronagraphs in association with this event.
The bulk of the ejected plasma is directed to the south-west,
however a glancing blow from the edge of this CME is expected
early on the 9th of June UT. A large CME was also observed early
in the UT day directed towards the east, however STEREO imagery
shows that this is a backside event. Solar wind speed reduced
below 500 km/s and continues to reduce as the recent coronal
hole high speed wind stream abates. IMF Bz ranged between +/-
2nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 05 Jun : A K
Australian Region 3 21112011
Cocos Island 4 21221011
Darwin 4 22212011
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 5 22222011
Alice Springs 3 21112011
Norfolk Island 2 11112001
Culgoora 3 11112111
Gingin 4 21122111
Camden 4 22112011
Canberra 2 11012000
Hobart 3 21112010
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Jun :
Macquarie Island 2 11212000
Casey 10 33221141
Mawson 24 64234124
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10 3332 1223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Jun 5 Quiet
07 Jun 10 Quiet to Unsettled, possible isolated Active period.
08 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions have been Quiet over the last 24
hours. Quiet conditions are expected to remain for the next day.
A small CME is expected to arrive on the 7th of June causing
possible isolated Active conditions on arrival, followed by Unsettled
conditions.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Jun Normal Normal Normal
07 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next
few days. Some depressed periods may be observed at high latitudes
on the 7th and 8th of June.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Jun 65
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 67
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Jun 70 Near predicted monthly values
07 Jun 60 Near predicted monthly values
08 Jun 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next
few days. Some mildly depressed periods are possible on the 7-8
June in southern and polar regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+09 (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:33%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Jun
Speed: 577 km/sec Density: 1.3 p/cc Temp: 105000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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