[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 June 13 issued 2331 UT on 02 Jun 2013

Mon Jun 3 09:31:10 EST 2013

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 JUNE 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 03 JUNE - 05 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Jun: 111/62

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Jun             04 Jun             05 Jun
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             120/72             125/78

COMMENT: Solar activity was at Low levels during 2 June due to 
an isolated low level C-class flare. Solar activity is expected 
to be at Very Low to Low levels for 3 June with the small chance 
of low level M-class flare activity. Initial analysis of STEREO 
and SOHO satellite imagery suggests there may be a weak Earthward 
directed CME observed around 20UT although further analysis is 
required. This activity may be in association with a reported 
Disappearing Solar Filament (DSF). Solar wind speeds remained 
elevated during 2 June, reaching around 800 km/s and have been 
declining slowly during the latter half of the UT day. The IMF 
Bz had a brief period around -10nT early in the UT day. Solar 
wind speeds are expected to decline slowly over the next few 
days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Jun: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 02 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region      13   34333222
      Cocos Island        10   23332222
      Darwin              17   44333233
      Townsville          15   34333233
      Learmonth           16   33334333
      Alice Springs       13   34333222
      Norfolk Island      15   35332222
      Culgoora            12   34332222
      Gingin              16   33334333
      Camden              13   34332223
      Canberra            11   33332222
      Hobart              16   33443322    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Jun :
      Macquarie Island    25   33455423
      Casey               27   44335534
      Mawson              47   55544374

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Jun : 
      Darwin              39   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              54   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            64   (Active)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             19                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        41
           Planetary             58   6665 6443     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Jun    10    Quiet to Unsettled
04 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled
05 Jun     6    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly Unsettled to Active 
early in the UT day for the Australian region then decreasing 
to Quiet. The elevated activity early in the UT day was due to 
a short interval of southward IMF early in the UT day. Mostly 
Unsettled to Quiet levels are expected for the next few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Jun      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
04 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
05 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next 
few days with isolated depressions at times.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
02 Jun    79

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for June:  67

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Jun    70    Near predicted monthly values
04 Jun    70    Near predicted monthly values
05 Jun    70    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next 
few days with isolated depressions at times.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.30E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Jun
Speed: 594 km/sec  Density:    5.7 p/cc  Temp:   281000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.