[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 July 13 issued 2332 UT on 29 Jul 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jul 30 09:32:27 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 JULY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 30 JULY - 01 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Jul: 112/63
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Jul 31 Jul 01 Aug
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 120/72 125/78
COMMENT: A C2.9 level flare was observed in Active Region 1800
(S08W85) at 1651UT. This region will rotate off the visible solar
disk today. None of the remaining regions on the visible disk
show significant magnetic complexity. A flare of unknown origin
at C4 level is in progress at the time of report issue. A narrow
SSE-directed CME was observed in LASCO C3 imagery after 1130UT.
A NE-directed CME was observed after 1325UT and an E-directed
CME late in the UT day. These CME's are probably related to far-side
events. Solar wind speed declined very slightly from 440 to 380
km/s over the UT day. The Bz component of the Interplanetary
Magnetic Field maintained mild (-2nT) bias until 15UT. There
was a brief excursion to -4nT after 21UT. Solar wind parameters
are expected to remain nominal for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 29 Jul : A K
Australian Region 1 11111000
Cocos Island 1 11111000
Darwin 3 12111101
Townsville - --------
Learmonth 2 11112000
Alice Springs 1 11101000
Norfolk Island 2 21001001
Culgoora 1 11011001
Gingin 2 11102110
Camden 2 12112000
Canberra 2 12011000
Hobart 2 12112000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Jul :
Macquarie Island 3 11122100
Casey 6 23211211
Mawson 8 33311112
Davis 15 3-------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Jul :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 7 3311 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Jul 5 Quiet
31 Jul 6 Quiet
01 Aug 6 Quiet
COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was Quiet at low to mid
latitudes. Unsettled intervals were observed early in the UT
day at high latitudes, becoming Quiet after 09UT. Expect generally
Quiet conditions next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Jul Normal Normal Normal
31 Jul Normal Normal Normal
01 Aug Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Jul 61
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day
with variable enhancements/depressions to 15%.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Brisbane/Norfolk Is. depressed 15-25% after local
dawn Jul 30.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index:
69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Jul 70 Near predicted monthly values
31 Jul 70 Near predicted monthly values
01 Aug 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Regional MUF's mostly near predicted monthly values
with some variability observed during local day Equatorial/N
Aus regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.3E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Jul
Speed: 440 km/sec Density: 1.2 p/cc Temp: 83100 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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