[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 July 13 issued 2328 UT on 27 Jul 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jul 28 09:28:53 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 JULY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 28 JULY - 30 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Jul: 108/58
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Jul 29 Jul 30 Jul
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 110/60 115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity was predominantly Very Low with an isolated
low level C-class flare observed during 27 July. Solar activity
is expected to be predominantly Very Low to Low with the very
small chance of M-class flares. CME activity observed late on
26 July and very weak CME activity observed during 27 July is
not expected to be geoeffective. Solar wind speeds continued
to decline slowly during 27 July and are expected to continue
this trend during 28 July.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 27 Jul : A K
Australian Region 6 22122221
Cocos Island 4 11112211
Darwin 6 22222221
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 8 22223321
Alice Springs 6 22222221
Norfolk Island 5 21122211
Culgoora 6 22122221
Gingin 8 22223321
Camden 6 22122221
Canberra 5 21122221
Hobart 5 21122221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Jul :
Macquarie Island 7 11133221
Casey 9 33322212
Mawson 32 54533336
Davis 24 34432236
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Jul :
Darwin 8 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 16 (Quiet)
Canberra 20 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 23
Planetary 14 4422 2233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Jul 6 Quiet
29 Jul 5 Quiet
30 Jul 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Most Quiet levels are expected over the next few days
with isolated Unsettled periods possible at times.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
29 Jul Normal Normal Normal
30 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next
three days, with a very small chance of SWFs.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Jul 74
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Jul 70 Near predicted monthly values
29 Jul 70 Near predicted monthly values
30 Jul 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next
three days, with a very small chance of SWFs.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Jul
Speed: 551 km/sec Density: 2.1 p/cc Temp: 225000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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