[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 July 13 issued 2330 UT on 24 Jul 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jul 25 09:30:24 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 JULY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 25 JULY - 27 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Jul: 108/58
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Jul 26 Jul 27 Jul
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours, with
the largest flare a C1.8 from AR1800 ((s08 w17) complexity Dao)
at 2143UT. The long tail on the x-ray trace is indicative of
a CME and AR1800 is in a geoeffective position, but awaiting
SOHO LASCO coronagraph data to confirm. Solar activity is expected
to be Low-Moderate 25-Jul, with small chance of an isolated M-class
flares from AR1800, AR1793 ((n19 w54) - complexity Eso) or newly
rotated AR1801 ((n21 e58) - complexity Hsx), but most likely
only B/C flares. The solar wind speed remained near 350km/s over
the 24-Jul UT day. Solar wind speed is likely to increase during
25-July due to coronal hole CH576 which will be in a geoeffective
position 25-27 July. Recurrence suggests Vsw may reach over 500km/s.
Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) north-south Bz oscillated
within an average range of +/-5nT, unlikely to create significant
geomagnetic activity.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 24 Jul : A K
Australian Region 2 11101011
Cocos Island 1 11100000
Darwin 2 11111011
Townsville 2 12101011
Learmonth 1 11101010
Alice Springs 1 11101001
Norfolk Island 2 2-001011
Culgoora 2 111010--
Gingin 2 11101011
Camden 2 11101011
Canberra 1 01101001
Hobart 1 11002000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Jul :
Macquarie Island 0 00001000
Casey 5 22212111
Mawson 13 42111153
Davis 6 21311131
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Jul :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 2200 1212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
26 Jul 30 Active to Minor Storm
27 Jul 20 Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet over the 24-Jul UT day
at mid and low latitudes. Isolated Active periods at auroral
latitudes. Expect mostly Quiet geomagnetic conditions next day
25-Jul, in the absence of prolonged Interplanetary Magnetic Field
(IMF) Bz southwards periods, until the arrival of the high speed
solar wind stream from coronal Hole CH576 due 25 or 26-Jul. Recurrence
suggests Vsw may reach over 500km/s and geomagnetic conditions
may reach Active to Minor Storm levels at peak, depending on
the north-south orientation of IMF Bz.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
26 Jul Fair Fair Fair-poor
27 Jul Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity from a coronal hole high speed
solar wind stream (HSSWS) due 25-27 July may cause disturbed
conditions.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Jul 64
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Jul 65 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 0 to
10%
26 Jul 55 0 to 20% below predicted monthly values
27 Jul 55 0 to 20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly values for 24 hour
averages across the region during daylight hours over the last
24 hours with the daily T index slightly below predicted monthly
average. However there was significant hourly variability with
night-time MUFs depressed across northern regions 20-35%. Significant
wave activity was observed causing hourly variability. Strong
Spread-F evident in the West. Expect mostly normal average HF
conditions for most of 25-Jul, with MUFs perhaps slightly below
average. There should be Unsettled-Active geomagnetic activity
due to high solar wind speed from a recurrent coronal hole CH576,
with possible peak Minor Storm (depending on Interplanetary Magnetic
field north-south orientation) from late on 25-Jul for ~2 days,
probably causing MUF depressions up to 20% and larger hourly
MUF variations.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Jul
Speed: 372 km/sec Density: 2.3 p/cc Temp: 42600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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