[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 July 13 issued 2330 UT on 06 Jul 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jul 7 09:30:22 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 JULY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 07 JULY - 09 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Jul: 134/88
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Jul 08 Jul 09 Jul
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 140/94 145/99
COMMENT: Solar activity stayed at low levels today. Several C-class
flares were observed today- the largest being a C4.1 event at
0233 UT from region 1785 (S11E12). Solar wind speed mostly varied
between around 340 and 360 km/s during the UT day today and the
Bz component of IMF stayed negative up to around -13 nT during
this period. Solar activity is expected to stay at moderate levels
for the next three days with the possibility of isolated M-class
activity and a slight chance of X-flare.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Jul: Mostly Quiet
to Unsettled with isolated Active periods at high latitudes
Estimated Indices 06 Jul : A K
Australian Region 8 12322322
Cocos Island 6 12222212
Darwin 9 22332222
Townsville 8 12322322
Learmonth 12 22333233
Alice Springs 7 12322222
Norfolk Island 8 22322222
Culgoora 9 22322322
Camden 9 12332322
Canberra 8 02322322
Hobart 12 12-33432
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Jul :
Macquarie Island 34 14655532
Casey 6 22212122
Mawson 50 57521456
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Jul :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 21
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 9 2322 2332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
08 Jul 6 Quiet to Unsettled
09 Jul 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Due to sustained periods of negative Bz, Quiet to Unsettled
levels of geomagnetic activity with isolated Active periods were
observed today. Quiet to Unsettled levels of geomagnetic activity
may be expected on 7 and 8 July. Activity is then expected to
decline to mostly Quiet levels on 9 July.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Jul Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Jul Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
08 Jul Normal Normal Normal
09 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Minor to mild MUF depressions observed on some low latitude
locations during the last 24 hours. Minor to mild MUF depressions
may be observed on 7 July on high and some mid latitude circuits.
HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal on 8 and 9
July.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Jul 97
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 80% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Jul 85 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
08 Jul 90 Near predicted monthly values
09 Jul 95 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Minor to mild MUF depressions observed on some locations
in the northern Aus regions during the last 24 hours. Minor to
mild MUF depressions may be observed on 7 July in Southern Aus/NZ
regions. HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal on
8 and 9 July.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.8E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Jul
Speed: 359 km/sec Density: 8.1 p/cc Temp: 18100 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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