[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 July 13 issued 2330 UT on 04 Jul 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jul 5 09:30:24 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 JULY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 05 JULY - 07 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Jul: 138/92
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Jul 06 Jul 07 Jul
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 140/94 135/89
COMMENT: Solar activity stayed at low levels today. Several C-class
flares were observed today- the largest being a C8.9 event at
0008 UT from region 1785 (S12E39). Solar wind speed varied between
around 360 and 390 km/s during the UT day today and the Bz component
of IMF varied between +/-4nT most of the times during this period.
Solar wind stream may be strengthened on 5 July due to previously
observed CME. Solar activity is expected to stay at low levels
for the next three days with the possibility of isolated M-class
activity and a slight chance of X-flare.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 04 Jul : A K
Australian Region 1 11000111
Cocos Island 2 11010111
Darwin 2 11100112
Townsville 2 11100112
Learmonth 2 11100111
Alice Springs 1 10000111
Norfolk Island 1 10000011
Culgoora 1 11000111
Camden 1 11000111
Canberra 0 01000000
Hobart 1 11000100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Jul :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 4 22201211
Mawson 4 32100121
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1000 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Jul 12 Unsettled to Active
06 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
07 Jul 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet levels of geomagnetic activity were observed today.
Quiet to Active levels of geomagnetic activity may be expected
on 5 July. Activity is then expected to decline to Quiet to Unsettled
levels on 6 and Quiet levels on 7 July.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Jul Normal-fair Fair Fair
06 Jul Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
07 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Minor to mild MUF depressions observed on several locations
mainly on low latitude locations during the last 24 hours. Minor
to moderate MUF depressions on 5 July and minor depressions on
6 July are possible especially in the high latitude and some
mid latitude locations.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Jul 60
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Jul 50 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
06 Jul 55 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
07 Jul 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Minor to mild MUF depressions observed on several locations
mainly in the northern Aus regions during the last 24 hours.
Minor to moderate MUF depressions on 5 July and minor depressions
on 6 July are possible especially in Southern Aus/NA regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:18%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Jul
Speed: 371 km/sec Density: 2.3 p/cc Temp: 41300 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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