[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 January 13 issued 2335 UT on 08 Jan 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jan 9 10:35:58 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 JANUARY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 09 JANUARY - 11 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Jan: 156/110
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 140/94 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low for the UT day, 8 January, with
C class flares from active regions 1640(N28,west limb), 1646(N13W09),
1652(N17E37), and 1654(N09E71). The largest was a C4 class x-ray
flare from active region 1640 at 1912UT. Expect similar activity
over the next three days. The solar wind speed remained around
350km/s and the interplanetary magnetic field ranged between
+/-5nT for the UT day. Expect similar solar wind conditions today.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 08 Jan : A K
Australian Region 5 21121212
Cocos Island 4 11221112
Darwin 5 21021213
Townsville 7 22122223
Learmonth 5 21122212
Norfolk Island 3 11010212
Culgoora 6 21111223
Gnangara 6 21131212
Camden 5 11111223
Canberra 2 11010112
Hobart 4 11111212
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Jan :
Macquarie Island 1 00000102
Casey 12 34322123
Mawson 11 22221125
Davis 13 22342224
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 1 0000 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Jan 4 Quiet
10 Jan 4 Quiet
11 Jan 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were mostly Quiet during the UT
day 8 January. Expect similar conditions for the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Jan Normal Normal Normal
10 Jan Normal Normal Normal
11 Jan Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Jan 117
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 80
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Jan 110 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
10 Jan 110 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
11 Jan 110 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions were normal to enhanced over the UT day,
8 January. Similar conditions are expected to prevail over the
next 3 days due to elevated EUV associated with active regions
on the Sun.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.20E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Jan
Speed: 357 km/sec Density: 6.6 p/cc Temp: 59800 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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