[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 February 13 issued 2330 UT on 27 Feb 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Feb 28 10:30:21 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 FEBRUARY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 28 FEBRUARY - 02 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Feb: 102/50
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Feb 01 Mar 02 Mar
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low 27-Feb. Background solar
X-ray flux remains at low levels. Expect Very Low solar activity
28-Feb, with the chance of isolated C-class flares. Solar wind
speed remains low, near 350 km/s at the time of report. The Bz
component of the IMF remains near 0 nT. A high speed coronal
hole wind stream is expected 01-Mar.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 27 Feb : A K
Australian Region 4 12212101
Darwin 3 12212001
Townsville 5 1222211-
Learmonth 5 22222111
Alice Springs 4 12212101
Norfolk Island 4 12211111
Gingin 4 2221210-
Camden 4 12212101
Canberra 1 01101000
Hobart 3 12211100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Feb :
Macquarie Island 0 0110000-
Casey 10 2442110-
Mawson 15 53312114
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 0211 2121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Feb 5 Quiet
01 Mar 12 Unsettled
02 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed at all latitudes
over the UT day Feb 27. Solar wind parameters remain at nominal
levels. Expect mostly Quiet conditions 28 Feb, increasing to
Unsettled, with isolated Active periods on day 2 (01-Mar) due
to a recurrent coronal hole wind stream. Mostly Quiet conditions
expected day 3 (02-Mar).
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Feb Normal Normal Normal
01 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
02 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Feb 56
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 79
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Feb 50 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
01 Mar 40 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
02 Mar 50 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs moderately depressed across S.Aus region Feb 27,
particularly overnight. Moderate depressions observed after local
dawn Feb 28 across the region. Expect similar conditions next
three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Feb
Speed: 327 km/sec Density: 4.6 p/cc Temp: 36800 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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