[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 February 13 issued 2323 UT on 24 Feb 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Feb 25 10:23:09 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 FEBRUARY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 25 FEBRUARY - 27 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Feb: 95/41
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Feb 26 Feb 27 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 95/41 90/34
COMMENT: An E-directed partial-halo CME was observed in LASCO
C3 imagery early in the UT day. STEREO imagery shows most of
the mass directed to the East, so the event is unlikely to be
geoeffective. A C2.6 level flare of unknown origin was observed
at 1435UT. Background solar X-ray flux has declined to nominal
levels. Solar wind speed declined steadily to about 300 km/s
at the time of report issue. The Bz component of the IMF maintained
mild (-2nT) negative bias over the UT day.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 24 Feb : A K
Australian Region 3 11111111
Darwin 3 11101112
Townsville 5 12211221
Learmonth 6 21222221
Alice Springs 3 11111111
Norfolk Island 3 21111110
Gingin 4 11211221
Camden 3 11111111
Canberra 0 00010000
Hobart 2 00121110
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Feb :
Macquarie Island 2 01221100
Casey 5 22221211
Mawson 13 33321234
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Feb :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 3102 2112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Feb 5 Quiet
26 Feb 5 Quiet
27 Feb 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed at all latitudes
over the UT day Feb 24, with some Unsettled periods at polar
cusp latitude. Solar wind parameters have declined to nominal
levels. Expect generally Quiet conditions next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Feb Normal Normal Normal
26 Feb Normal Normal Normal
27 Feb Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Feb 50
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 79
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Feb 45 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
26 Feb 45 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
27 Feb 45 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUF's moderately depressed across most of the region
Feb 24. Widespread moderate depressions observed after local
dawn Feb 25 N Aus/S Aus regions. Expect similar conditions next
three days with possible deepening depressions as solar EUV radiation
declines.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.2E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Feb
Speed: 377 km/sec Density: 4.7 p/cc Temp: 45600 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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