[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 February 13 issued 2327 UT on 15 Feb 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Feb 16 10:27:40 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 FEBRUARY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 16 FEBRUARY - 18 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Feb: 100/48
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Feb 17 Feb 18 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 105/54 105/54
COMMENT: The solar activity was Very Low during the UT day, 15
February. Expect Very Low activity for the next three days. SOHO
LASCO C2 imagery showed an CME first viewed at 1800UT on the
northeast limb, not likely to be geoeffective. Solar wind speed
declined from 390km/s to 330km/s over the last 24 hours. The
Bz component of the IMF remained between +/- 2nT. Expect light
solar wind over the next 24 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 15 Feb : A K
Australian Region 4 11122111
Darwin 6 21122113
Townsville 6 12222222
Learmonth 6 22122222
Alice Springs 5 21122121
Norfolk Island 3 11111111
Gingin 5 11122221
Camden 3 11012111
Canberra 0 -0011000
Hobart 2 01111011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Feb :
Macquarie Island 0 00010000
Casey 9 33321221
Mawson 20 22211256
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 12 3333 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Feb 4 Quiet
17 Feb 4 Quiet
18 Feb 4 Quiet
COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was at mostly Quiet levels
during the UT day, 15 February. Expect mostly Quiet conditions
to prevail for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Feb Normal Normal Normal
17 Feb Normal Normal Normal
18 Feb Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Feb 69
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 79
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Feb 80 Near predicted monthly values
17 Feb 80 Near predicted monthly values
18 Feb 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal over the UT day. Expect
mostly normal ionospheric conditions next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Feb
Speed: 381 km/sec Density: 1.7 p/cc Temp: 28000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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