[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 February 13 issued 2322 UT on 13 Feb 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Feb 14 10:22:54 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 FEBRUARY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 14 FEBRUARY - 16 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Feb: 100/48
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Feb 15 Feb 16 Feb
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 110/60
COMMENT: Only B-class flares and mainly from AR1670 which remains
the largest most complex region on the visible disc. AR1670 and
1671 have potential to produce C-class flares. There was a follow
on weak shock at 0030UT to the filament CME initiated near AR1670
on the 9th Feb which clipped the geomagnetic field ~10UT on the
12th, and it was more geoeffective. Solar wind speed rose from
350 to 400km/s and became more turbulent and there was an associated
mildly Bz southward period for ~2 hours. A further structure,
possibly also associated with the 9th Feb CME, arrived ~16UT
with strong Bz southwards and is still in effect, causing strong
merging with the geomagnetic field. One of the filaments in the
SW quadrant which has been stable for several days showed signs
of collapse ~03-0530UT with some associated B-class x-ray emissions.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 13 Feb : A K
Australian Region 8 22221233
Darwin 9 32221233
Townsville 11 33222233
Learmonth 11 32222234
Alice Springs 10 32222233
Norfolk Island 7 22221123
Gingin 9 32122233
Camden 7 22221123
Canberra 5 11111123
Hobart 8 22221133
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Feb :
Macquarie Island 4 21210022
Casey 21 44532134
Mawson 25 44332146
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 1000 1213
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
15 Feb 5 Quiet
16 Feb 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet at mid-latitudes with some Unsettled due
to a trailing weak shock ~0030UT, 12 hours behind the CME edge
that arrived at ~10UT on the 12th. A greater Vsw jump and and
Bz southward made this more effective than the initial CME. High
latitudes experienced Active and Minor Storm periods due to the
merging from Bz south. Expect Quiet to Unsettled conditions on
the 14th as another Bz south structure arrived ~16UT and it still
in effect. Conditions expected to return to Quiet 15-16th.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 Feb Normal Normal Normal
16 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal for the
next 24 hours with some disturbances at high latitudes to a periods
of extended IMF Bz southwards commencing 16UT on 13th.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Feb 77
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 79
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Feb 75 Near predicted monthly values
15 Feb 75 Near predicted monthly values
16 Feb 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly values across the centre
and south of the region during the last 24 hours but returned
to variable in the north near the active equatorial anomaly.
The anomaly was possibly made more active by Unsettled geomagnetic
conditions from the passage 0030UT of a weak shock in the wake
of the CME on the 12th. Geomagnetic activity is continuing with
sustained Bz southwards so variability should persist into the
14th.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Feb
Speed: 365 km/sec Density: 0.8 p/cc Temp: 32100 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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