[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 February 13 issued 2347 UT on 09 Feb 2013

Sun Feb 10 10:47:40 EST 2013

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 FEBRUARY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 10 FEBRUARY - 12 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Feb:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Feb: 108/58

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             10 Feb             11 Feb             12 Feb
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             105/54             105/54

COMMENT: Only one long duration C2.4 flare, peaking at 0640 UT. 
SDO imagery showed a filament erupted in the vicinity of region 
1670( N19E12) around this time. LASCO and STEREO images show 
a CME at 0648UT, appears to be associated with the filament eruption. 
This CME may be weakly geo-effective. There has been some increase 
in the area and spot count of region 1670(Dao class) while other 
regions appear stable or declining. Predominantly C-class flare 
activity is expected over the forecast period. Solar wind speed 
declined slightly from 450 km/s over the UT day. The IMF Bz component 
was mostly neutral (+/-2nT). Solar wind is expected to continue 
decreasing over the next 2 days(10-11 Feb). CME observed on 09 
Feb, may impact Earth on day 3(12 Feb).

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Feb: Quiet

Estimated Indices 09 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   22210012
      Darwin               5   22221112
      Townsville           5   22211122
      Learmonth            5   22221112
      Alice Springs        3   21220011
      Norfolk Island       3   22100012
      Gingin               4   2211111-
      Camden               2   21110011
      Canberra             2   12110001
      Hobart               3   12210011    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Feb :
      Macquarie Island     0   01100000
      Casey               11   3433101-
      Mawson              10   33321123

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Feb : 
      Darwin               6   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             9   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8   2232 3211     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
10 Feb     5    Quiet
11 Feb     5    Quiet
12 Feb    10    Quiet to Unsettled. Isolated active levels possible 
                at high latitudes.

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity has been Quiet and should remain 
mostly Quiet for the next two days. CME in association with a 
filament eruption observed on 09 Feb may have an Earth-directed 
component. Unsettled and possible Active geomagnetic conditions 
could result on Feb 12.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Feb      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
11 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
12 Feb      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal for the 
next 24 hours.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
09 Feb    73

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for February:  79

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
10 Feb    75    Near predicted monthly values
11 Feb    75    Near predicted monthly values
12 Feb    70    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal during the last 24 
hours. Expect this trend to continue for the next 48 hours. Mildly 
degraded conditions may be observed at times for 12 Feb.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 08 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.3E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.20E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Feb
Speed: 432 km/sec  Density:    1.8 p/cc  Temp:    95000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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