[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 February 13 issued 2346 UT on 07 Feb 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Feb 8 10:46:28 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 FEBRUARY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 08 FEBRUARY - 10 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Feb: 103/52
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Feb 09 Feb 10 Feb
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 110/60
COMMENT: Visible regions on the solar disk have been predominately
quiet during Feb 07. Very low to Low solar activity is expected
for the next 3 days. No significant CME activity was observed
over the period. Solar wind has been steady near ~360km/s for
the last 24h. The Bz component of the IMF was mostly northward
with a short reversal to the southward (up to -9nT)orientation
between 04-08UT. The solar wind may be slightly disturbed on
Feb 08 due to CMEs on Feb 06. Coronal hole effects are likely
to impact late on Feb 09.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 07 Feb : A K
Australian Region 8 22232222
Darwin 10 33232222
Townsville 10 33232222
Learmonth 9 23232222
Alice Springs 8 22232222
Norfolk Island 6 22222122
Gingin 9 32232222
Camden 6 12232121
Canberra 5 12222121
Hobart 7 12332121
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Feb :
Macquarie Island 10 11344201
Casey 16 34442123
Mawson 12 32333223
Davis 15 23443232
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 5 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 7 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 7 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 1 0000 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
09 Feb 12 Quiet to Unsettled
10 Feb 12 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was at Quiet to Unsettled
levels during the last 24 hours. Unsettled activity occurred
in the first half of the UT day, 07 Feb. This activity was associated
with a mild sustained southward Bz peaking near -9nT at ~05UT.
Conditions during the second half of the UT day were Quiet. Unsettled
and possible Active geomagnetic conditions could result from
08 Feb due to a possible minor effect of CMEs on Feb 06 and expected
effect of a coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Feb Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
09 Feb Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
10 Feb Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Feb 82
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 65% 05-12UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 79
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Feb 75 Near predicted monthly values
09 Feb 75 Near predicted monthly values
10 Feb 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal over the UT day. A
a significant enhancement was noted at the Niue station between
05-12UT. Mild depressions may occur at times during the forecast
period in response to possible elevated geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Feb
Speed: 318 km/sec Density: 1.6 p/cc Temp: 28900 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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