[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 January 13 issued 2330 UT on 31 Jan 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Feb 1 10:30:03 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 JANUARY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 01 FEBRUARY - 03 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Jan: 103/52
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Feb 02 Feb 03 Feb
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 105/54 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours,
with B-class activity from region 1163 (S11W08). A filament lifting
from near region 1666 (S24E48) was associated with a CME that
could deliver a glancing blow on 3-Feb. Solar activity is expected
to be very low to low over the next 3 days. The solar wind speed
increased slightly over the second half of the UT day to ~330
km/s. The IMF Bz component was mostly neutral until ~15UT, thereafter
fluctuating between +/-5 nT and remaining negative for the last
5 hours.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 31 Jan : A K
Australian Region 4 22111112
Cocos Island 2 22110010
Darwin 6 22222212
Townsville 6 22221222
Learmonth 4 22111112
Alice Springs 4 22111112
Norfolk Island 3 21110112
Gnangara 4 21211112
Camden 3 11110112
Canberra 2 01110012
Hobart 1 01110001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 Jan :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 7 23321112
Mawson 3 210-----
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 1 0000 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Feb 5 Quiet with a chance of early unsettled conditions.
02 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
03 Feb 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed over the
Australian region during the last 24 hours. Some unsettled periods
in the Antarctic region. Mostly quiet conditions are expected
on 1-Feb, with a possible early unsettled period if the IMF Bz
component remains negative. Some unsettled periods are expected
later on 2-Feb with the likely onset of coronal hole effects.
A glancing blow from a CME could result in some active periods
on 3-Feb.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Feb Normal Normal Normal
02 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 Jan 67
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 80
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Feb 65 Near predicted monthly values
02 Feb 70 Near predicted monthly values
03 Feb 50 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mild MUF depressions were observed over much of the
Australian region over the last 24 hours. Similar conditions
are expected on 1-2 Feb. Increased geomagnetic activity is likely
to result in deeper MUF depressions on 3-Feb.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.5E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Jan
Speed: 340 km/sec Density: 1.4 p/cc Temp: 33200 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list