[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 December 13 issued 2330 UT on 24 Dec 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Dec 25 10:30:18 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 DECEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 25 DECEMBER - 27 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Dec: 128/81
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Dec 26 Dec 27 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 130/84 130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low during the last 24 hours, the
largest event of this period being a C1.7 flare that peaked at
1552UT. Solar wind speed stayed between 300 and 320 km/s and
IMF Bz varied between +/-4 nT during most parts of this period.
Bz stayed positive during the first half and negative during
the second half of the day for relatively longer periods of time.
Solar wind stream is expected to get strengthened from 25 December
due to the effect of a high solar speed wind stream from a coronal
hole. Low levels of solar activity, with the possibility of isolated
M-class activity, may be expected for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 24 Dec : A K
Australian Region 1 10100101
Darwin 2 10100112
Townsville 1 10100111
Learmonth 1 00100102
Alice Springs 1 01100101
Culgoora 2 11100111
Gingin 1 00100101
Camden 1 11100101
Canberra 0 00000000
Launceston 2 11100211
Hobart 1 10100101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Dec :
Macquarie Island 0 00000100
Casey 8 33311212
Mawson 3 11111211
Davis 5 12311111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 1 0000 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Dec 12 Quiet to Active
26 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
27 Dec 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at quiet levels during the
last 24 hours. The level of geomagnetic activity may rise up
to Active levels on 25 December due the effect of a high speed
solar wind stream from a coronal hole. Activity level may be
expected to gradually decline to unsettled and then to quiet
levels on the following two days (26 and 27 December) as the
coronal hole effect is expected to gradually weaken through this
period.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
26 Dec Normal Normal Normal
27 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Enhanced MUFs observed over the last 24 hours. Sporadic
E-layers were observed at several locations. Mostly normal HF
conditions may be expected for the next 3 days with some possibility
of minor MUF depressions on 25 December and some MUF enhancements
on 26 and 27 December.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Dec 146
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 60% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 117
Dec 73
Jan 71
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Dec 135 Near predicted monthly values
26 Dec 140 Near to 10% above predicted monthly values
27 Dec 145 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Enhanced MUFs observed for Australasian region over
the last 24 hours. Sporadic E-layers were observed at several
locations. Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected for the
next 3 days with some possibility of minor MUF depressions on
25 December and some MUF enhancements on 26 and 27 December.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Dec
Speed: 312 km/sec Density: 1.4 p/cc Temp: 39200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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