[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 December 13 issued 2340 UT on 12 Dec 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Dec 13 10:40:38 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 DECEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 13 DECEMBER - 15 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Dec: 165/119
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Dec 14 Dec 15 Dec
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 165/119 160/114 160/114
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours with the
largest event being a C5.9 flare at 2214UT from a yet to be determined
region. Region 1912 (S22W63) was the source of a C4.6 xray flare
at 0336UT and region 1917 (S14E03) produced a long duration flare
that reached a maximum of C3.4 at 0659UT. Bz, the north-south
component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) ranged between
+1nt and -3nT, being predominantly southward for the last 24
hours. Solar wind speed declined from 330km/s at 00UT to be ~285km/s
at the time of this report. Solar wind speed is expected to increase
in the next 24 hours due to coronal hole effects. There are currently
10 numbered regions on visible disk that all appear to be either
stable or declining in overall size. Solar activity is expected
to be Low for the next 3 days with small chance of M-class events
while the 10cm flux levels are expected to remain at elevated
levels.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 12 Dec : A K
Australian Region 1 11010001
Darwin 3 11111012
Townsville 2 11100012
Learmonth 1 10010002
Alice Springs 1 10100001
Culgoora - --------
Gingin 1 11010001
Camden 1 11001001
Canberra 2 13000000
Launceston 2 11111001
Hobart 1 11011000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Dec :
Macquarie Island 0 01000000
Casey 13 35422001
Mawson 6 22111213
Davis 5 22222111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 1 0010 1001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Dec 14 Unsettled to Active
14 Dec 11 Unsettled
15 Dec 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours. Mostly
Quiet conditions are expected for the next 24 hours with possible
Active to Minor Storm conditions in the latter half of the UT
day due to the arrival of a high speed solar wind stream from
a northern-hemisphere/equatorial located coronal hole. Unsettled
conditions expected for 14Dec and mostly Quiet conditions for
15Dec.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
14 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed over the last 24
hours with MUF enhancements ~15% seen at low to high latitudes.
Chance of short-wave fadeouts.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Dec 142
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 117
Dec 73
Jan 71
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Dec 130 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
14 Dec 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
15 Dec 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Enhanced MUFs observed across all Australian and NZ
regions over the last 24 hours. Normal to enhanced ionospheric
support expected for Australian and NZ regions for the next 3
days due to strong ionising EUV flux (f10.7cm) levels.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.9E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 9.8E+03
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Dec
Speed: 356 km/sec Density: 2.8 p/cc Temp: 42800 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list