[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 December 13 issued 2342 UT on 09 Dec 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Dec 10 10:42:29 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 DECEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 DECEMBER - 12 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Dec: 168/122
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Dec 11 Dec 12 Dec
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible None expected
10.7cm/SSN 170/124 175/129 172/126
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours with the
largest event being a C2.9 xray flare from region 1917 (S16E43)
at 1130UT. Bz, the southward component of the interplanetary
magnetic field (IMF) ranged between +3 and -4nT with a sustained
southward period in the latter half of the UT day. Solar wind
speed gradually declined from ~540km/s at 00UT to be ~400km/s
at the time of this report. A possible glancing blow from 07Dec
M-class CME in the next 24 hours could see a minor increase in
solar wind parameters. Solar activity is expected to be Low for
the next 3 days with small chance of M-class events while the
10cm flux levels are expected to remain elevated.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 09 Dec : A K
Australian Region 4 21011212
Darwin 5 21112212
Townsville 4 21011212
Learmonth 4 21012202
Alice Springs 3 21001202
Culgoora 3 11001212
Gingin 4 21012202
Camden 4 21111211
Canberra 1 10000101
Launceston 5 22111212
Hobart 4 11111212
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Dec :
Macquarie Island 2 10002211
Casey 13 44322222
Mawson 11 22322333
Davis 11 22333331
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 17 5442 2322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Dec 13 Unsettled to Active
11 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
12 Dec 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours. Mostly
Quiet conditions are expected for the next 24 hours with chance
of Unsettled to Active periods due to a possible glancing blow
CME from the 07Dec M-class flare. Mostly Quiet with possible
Unsettled periods expected for 11Dec-12Dec.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
11 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
12 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed over the last 24
hours with MUF enhancements ~15% for low latitudes during local
day. Chance of short-wave fadeouts.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Dec 116
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 117
Dec 73
Jan 71
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Dec 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
11 Dec 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
12 Dec 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Enhanced MUFs for Northern AUS regions over the last
24 hours with notable sporadic E between 7UT and 22UT for IPS
Brisbane, Perth, Norfolk Is. and Niue Is. stations. Mostly normal
ionospheric support for Southern AUS and NZ regions as well as
Antarctic regions. Similar conditions are expected for the next
3 days with continue enhancements for Northern AUS/Equatorial
regions. Slight chance of SWFs.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.60E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Dec
Speed: 552 km/sec Density: 2.4 p/cc Temp: 273000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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