[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 December 13 issued 2330 UT on 07 Dec 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Dec 8 10:30:17 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 DECEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 DECEMBER - 10 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Dec: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.2 0734UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Dec: 157/111
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Dec 09 Dec 10 Dec
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 155/109 150/105 150/105
COMMENT: Background x-ray flux remains high. Four C-class events
and an M1.2 flare at 0729 UT. The M flare occurred in conjunction
with a small filament eruption in the vicinity of AR 11909 (S17W61).
Two new, simple regions, region 11916 () has grown while other
old regions are stable or declining. The limited STEREO images
show a CME around the time of the M flare. Although most ejecta
is directed south in STEREO A images, it appears as a halo event
in STEREO B, so the event will probably impact Earth, late 9
to 10 Dec. ACE data show the solar wind speed 300-430 km/s with
the IMF undisturbed until about 1720 UT; since then it has ranged
+/-12 nT with other parameters increasing.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Dec: Quiet to unsettled.
Estimated Indices 07 Dec : A K
Australian Region 5 21101123
Darwin 6 21101124
Townsville 6 21201223
Learmonth 5 21101223
Alice Springs 4 21101113
Culgoora 4 20101123
Gingin 5 21101123
Camden 5 21111123
Canberra 2 10100012
Launceston 5 21101123
Hobart 4 20101113
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Dec :
Macquarie Island 2 11110012
Casey 15 34432133
Mawson 15 43222144
Davis 11 33322133
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Dec :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 1 0010 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Dec 25 Unsettled to active with isolated minor storm
periods.
09 Dec 12 Unsettled
10 Dec 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 33 was issued on 7 December
and is current for 8 Dec only. Geomagnetic activity has increased
over the last few hours probably due to large CME 5 Dec.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Dec Fair Fair Fair-poor
09 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
10 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: With respect to the predicted monthly T index, mostly
enhanced MUFs are expected for southern hemisphere propagation
paths and near predicted MUFs for northern hemisphere paths.
Chance of short-wave fadeouts.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Dec 133
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values 00-07, 14, 18-23
UT. Enhanced 15-40% at other times.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values 00-11, 23 UT. Enhanced
20-40% 12-23 UT. No Townsville data.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values 00-05, 20-23 UT.
Enhanced 20-35% at other times. Perth, near predicted
monthly values 00-16 UT then enhanced 25-35%. Sporadic
E mostly 06-11 UT.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 117
Dec 73
Jan 71
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Dec 110 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
09 Dec 120 Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
10 Dec 120 Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Sporadic E may, at times, disrupt oblique propagation
paths. Chance of SWFs.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Dec
Speed: 339 km/sec Density: 5.5 p/cc Temp: 20400 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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