[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 December 13 issued 2330 UT on 03 Dec 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Dec 4 10:30:22 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 DECEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 04 DECEMBER - 06 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Dec: 136/90
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Dec 05 Dec 06 Dec
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 140/94 145/99
COMMENT: Two C1 flares at 1455 and 2222 UT. Background x-ray
flux is increasing. All regions appear stable or are declining
except new region (S29W06) which grew rapidly over the reporting
period. Available LASCO and STEREO images indicate no CME events.
ACE data show the solar wind speed between 350-450 km/s and the
north-south IMF gradually becoming somewhat disturbed (+/-7 nT)
with extended southward periods. Region 1893 (S13) which previously
produced X-flare(s) is due to return around 4 Dec. An equatorial
coronal hole is likely to become mildly geo-effective around
6 Dec.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 03 Dec : A K
Australian Region 7 12223222
Darwin 7 12223222
Townsville 6 11223122
Learmonth 9 21224222
Alice Springs 6 11223122
Culgoora 7 12223122
Gingin 8 22223222
Camden 7 12223222
Canberra 4 02113111
Launceston 7 12223222
Hobart 6 12223211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Dec :
Macquarie Island 12 12135311
Casey 20 45433232
Mawson 24 34224355
Davis 17 34334332
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Dec :
Darwin 7 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 1 0000 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
05 Dec 5 Quiet
06 Dec 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Mild disturbance from the effects of a coronal hole
due around 6 Dec.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Dec Normal Normal Normal
05 Dec Normal Normal Normal
06 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Enhanced MUFs, with respect to the predicted monthly
T index, are expected for southern hemisphere propagation paths.
MUFs on northern hemisphere propagation paths expected to be
near predicted to slightly lower than those based on predicted
monthly T index.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Dec 132
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values 00-04, 18-21 UT.
Enhanced 15-30% at other times.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values 00-09, 21-22 UT.
Enhanced 20-30% at other times. No Townsville data.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values 00-04, 21-23 UT.
Enhanced 15-35% at other times.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 117
Dec 73
Jan 71
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Dec 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
05 Dec 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
06 Dec 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Sporadic E may, at times, disrupt oblique propagation
paths. Chance of SWFs.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.80E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Dec
Speed: 424 km/sec Density: 0.8 p/cc Temp: 62100 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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