[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 November 13 issued 2330 UT on 30 Nov 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Dec 1 10:30:20 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 NOVEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 DECEMBER - 03 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Nov: 131/85
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Dec 02 Dec 03 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 130/84 135/89
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low during the last 24 hours.
Solar wind speed gradually increased from 370 to 500 km/s during
the last 24 hours. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic
field varied mostly between +/-5nT. Low levels of solar activity
may be expected for the next three days with some possibility
of isolated M-class event.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Nov: Mostly quiet
to unsettled
Estimated Indices 30 Nov : A K
Australian Region 6 21221123
Darwin 8 21221124
Townsville 6 11221123
Learmonth 7 21221223
Alice Springs 6 21221113
Culgoora 6 21221123
Gingin 6 21221123
Camden 7 21222123
Canberra 5 11121123
Launceston 11 12232234
Hobart 8 12232123
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Nov :
Macquarie Island 11 11152223
Casey 21 35532224
Mawson 21 33332255
Davis 26 33433346
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Nov :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 0112 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Dec 7 Quiet to Unsettled
02 Dec 10 Quiet to Unsettled
03 Dec 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Due to strengthening in the solar wind stream and periods
of negative Bz, geomagnetic conditions increased up to unsettled
levels today. Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions may be expected
on 01 and 02 December with some possibility of active periods
on 02 December. Quiet conditions may be expected on 03 December.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Dec Normal Normal Normal
02 Dec Normal Normal Normal
03 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed during the
last 24 hours. Strong sporadic E-layers were observed on some
mid latitude locations during this period. Mostly normal HF
conditions may be expected for the next three days with the
possibility of minor MUF enhancements on 01 and 03 December.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Nov 103
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 88
Nov 71
Dec 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Dec 100 Near to 10% above predicted monthly values
02 Dec 90 Near predicted monthly values
03 Dec 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed across Aus/NZ
region during the last 24 hours. Strong sporadic E-layers were
observed on some mid latitude locations during this period. Mostly
normal HF conditions may be expected for the next three days
with the possibility of minor MUF enhancements on 01 and 03 December.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Nov
Speed: 288 km/sec Density: 6.0 p/cc Temp: 50900 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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