[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 August 13 issued 2338 UT on 14 Aug 2013

Thu Aug 15 09:38:13 EST 2013

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 AUGUST 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 15 AUGUST - 17 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Aug:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Aug: 125/78

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Aug             16 Aug             17 Aug
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   125/78             125/78             130/84

COMMENT: Several C-class flares predominantly from AR1809(west 
limb) and AR1817(S21W12). AR1817 and AR1818(S07E13) showed further 
growth over the last 24 hours and remain the most complex features 
on the the visible disk. M class X-ray flares can be expected 
from these regions over the forecast period. A disappearing solar 
filament observed in the south west quadrant ~1900UT. Further 
analysis will be made once the data becomes available. The solar 
wind speed increased steadily throughout the day, to be near 
500km/s at the time of reporting. This was associated with some 
mild (+/-5nT) fluctuations in IMF Bz a level which is unlikely 
to promote significant merging with the geomagnetic field. IMF 
Bz has trended southwards since 1800UT and oscillated within 
0 to -7nT, not strong but may still develop further over the 
next 24 hours.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Aug: Quiet

Estimated Indices 14 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   22201112
      Cocos Island         2   11100112
      Darwin               6   22211123
      Townsville           6   22201213
      Learmonth            6   22201123
      Alice Springs        4   22200112
      Norfolk Island       2   2-100111
      Culgoora             4   22201112
      Gingin               6   22202123
      Camden               5   23201112
      Canberra             3   22101102
      Hobart               6   22202213    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Aug :
      Macquarie Island     5   13102112
      Casey                9   33311123
      Mawson              39   54310176
      Davis               18   22420136

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Aug : 
      Darwin              21   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               4   (Quiet)
      Canberra            25   (Quiet to unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             10   2003 2423     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Aug    12    Unsettled to Active
16 Aug    12    Unsettled to Active
17 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 20 was issued on 14 August and 
is current for 14-15 Aug. The regional geomagnetic field was 
Quiet at low to mid latitudes. Some Storm periods observed at 
polar cusp latitudes. Conditions may become Unsettled to occasionally 
Active due to anticipated high speed coronal hole wind stream 
15-16 August.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Aug      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
16 Aug      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
17 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next 
three days, with a chance of SWFs.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
14 Aug    70

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      83
Aug      72
Sep      71

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Aug    60    Near predicted monthly values
16 Aug    60    Near predicted monthly values
17 Aug    70    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next 
three days, with a chance of SWFs.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.70E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Aug
Speed: 357 km/sec  Density:    1.7 p/cc  Temp:    53500 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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