[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 August 13 issued 2353 UT on 07 Aug 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Aug 8 09:53:39 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 AUGUST 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 08 AUGUST - 10 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Aug: 106/55
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Aug 09 Aug 10 Aug
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: Very Low solar activity over the last 24hours. New regions
1815 (N06W46) and 1816 (S20E44) emerged over the last 24 hours
bringing the total number of regions currently on disk to seven.
Solar wind speed ranged between 500km/s to 400km/s over the UT
day, while Bz fluctuated between +/-4nT. A possible glancing
blow from an 06Aug CME is expected late in the UT day on 09Aug.
Very Low to Low solar activity is expected for the next few days.
Current regions on disk appear stable and with low magnetic complexity.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 07 Aug : A K
Australian Region 1 11100000
Cocos Island 3 13110000
Darwin 2 22100001
Townsville 2 12200001
Learmonth 2 12200000
Alice Springs 1 11200000
Norfolk Island 1 11100010
Culgoora 1 11100001
Gingin 1 21100000
Camden 1 11100001
Canberra 1 11100000
Hobart 1 21100000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Aug :
Macquarie Island 0 10100000
Casey 6 23320110
Mawson 7 33210031
Davis 8 24321011
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Aug :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7 3221 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Aug 4 Quiet
09 Aug 10 Mostly Quiet, possible Minor Storm levels.
10 Aug 14 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours. Mostly
Quiet conditions expected for the next 24 hours. A possible glancing
blow CME arrival is forecast to arrive after 1900UT on 09Aug.
Quiet conditions with possible Minor Storm levels late in the
UT day for 09Aug. Unsettled to Active conditions for 10Aug.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
10 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Depressed MUF's for mid latitudes and disturbed periods
for high latitudes over the next 24 hours. Variable conditions
for low latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Aug 60
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
No data available during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 83
Aug 72
Sep 71
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Aug 60 Near predicted monthly values
09 Aug 75 Near predicted monthly values
10 Aug 55 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Depressed conditions during local day for Southern AUS
and Northern AUS regions and variable conditions for IPS low
latitude stations. Disturbed conditions for Antarctic regions.
Similar HF conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Increased
geomagnetic activity anticipated for 10Aug with possible MUF
depressions of ~20% for Southern AUS/NZ regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:17%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Aug
Speed: 461 km/sec Density: 0.4 p/cc Temp: 68900 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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